Search by keyword: Siberia
Introducing Uncertainty into the Estimation of Effectiveness of Large Regional Transport Projects: Structural-Institutional Approach
The paper presents that standard methods for estimating effectiveness of capital investment projects are deterministic. Uncertainty and risks are introduced and declared but not described with proper terminology. As far as large capital investment projects are concerned, of which implementation influences the structure and price standards not only on departmental or regional markets but also on national ones, underestimation of “external effects”, for instance, could lead to costly errors. To resolve this issue, we propose to utilize a strategy games model where contrasting scenarios are generated using models from a family of an optimization interregional–interindustrial model. The article also shows the results of experimental calculations and an example of how to use the described model
Kibalov Ie. B. kibalovE@mail.ru
Keywords: large capital investment projects regional transport systems Siberia energy-output ratio assessment area of Baikal-Amur Main Line (BAM) uncertainty risks
Arctic Policies in the Context of Global Instability: Experiences and Lessons for Russia
The paper analyzes how different countries developed their Arctic polices and strategies in the context of the globalization processes, climate changes, and geo-political and economic trends. We also analyze the innovation aspects, resources, risks and uncertainties, and new drivers of their Artic development; problems of their sovereignty and national security; and feasibility to make such risks, uncertainties and instability less through international cooperation. A special focus is on the economic aspects of the Russian North and Arctic in the context of the global instability, risks and threats
Pelyasov A. N. pelyasov@mail.ru
Kuleshov V. V. ieie@ieie.nsc.ru
Seliverstov V. Ye. sel@ieie.nsc.ru
Keywords: Arctic factors Arctic resources Arctic Ocean Arctic policy energy-output ratio Siberia national Arctic strategies globalization risks uncertainty
Assessing efficiency of large transportation projects
The study considers an issue of the assessment of large-scaled projects. It also presents our statement of the problem under a situation of uncertainty, concept of assessment of regional-transportation projects by applying expert technologies, and numerical illustration of how expected efficiencies of the alternative passages of transportation over the Eastern Bosporus Strait could be assessed at the pre-de-signing stage. We show under what conditions the construction of a bridge connecting the Russky Island could be regarded as a preferential alternative.
Kibalov Ie. B. kibalovE@mail.ru
Khutoretsky A. B. hab@dus.nsc.ru
Keywords: large-scaled project passage of transportation the Eastern Bosporus Strait dynamics structure Siberia investments agricultural enterprises investment project
Assessing priorities of Siberian investment projects under incomplete Information
We offer the technique for assessing the economic effectiveness of regional investment projects. Novelty of the technique consists in fact that one can have such assessments only on the base of two indicators such as the investments required and sectoral belonging of projects. We also offer the economic effectiveness criteria which allow ordering the projects according to regional administrations' preferences within some packet of investment proposals. An example of calculations made on some real data is presented.
Koleda A. V. zaqzaqy@rambler.ru
Keywords: Siberia Siberia uncertainty investment project rates regional economic policy
Assessing social efficiency of rail transport in megalopolis
The paper analyzes how megalopolis uses the trunk and approach lines to provide industrial and intracity communications. A preferable strategy for the development of railway transportation is presented. We show how effective a «trolley car - train» project could be for resolving transportation problems in Novosibirsk.
Yepishkina K. M. kseni@land.ru
Keywords: rail transport megalopolis railway network general plan structure Siberia scenarios assessment
Structural reform of the rail transportation as an institutional project: analysis of strategic aspects
The paper analyses a large-scale institutional project of the Russian Federation - a structural reform in the railway sector. We describe the specifics of the methodology applied to the assessment of efficiency of the project characterized by high risks and dependant on multi-aspects externalities. We also show negative and positive results of the reform, what failures are observed and why they happened; and make recommendations on how, at least, to mitigate the consequences of such failures, if we will fail to eliminate them completely.
Kibalov Ie. B. kibalovE@mail.ru
Keywords: institutional project rail transportation reform structure assessment Siberia
Application of the fuzzy sets theory to assessment of the large-scale investment projects
The paper considers the issues of how to assess the efficiency of the large-scale investment projects. We offer an approach to choosing a preferred project among competitive ones when making a decision on the selection of an investment project. The approach is grounded upon both the principals of system analysis applied in the fuzzy sets theory and expert technologies. Our special focus is on how to assess the investment costs and their fluctuations depending on investment risks while the preproject analysis is being carried out. To make our calculation, we use a simulated case-study on «Transportation Network Project for Russian Far North and Far East»
Bespalov I. A. phoenix_w@mail.га
Keywords: uncertainty assessment Siberia Siberia reserves investment project efficiency uncertainty
