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A fuzzy-set analysis of regional transportation projects
The paper offers an approach to support decision-making on selecting an investment project among alternative large-scaled transportation projects. This approach is based on principles of fuzzy set theory. Using this approach, we analyze the competitive projects on construction a bridge connecting the Russky Island. For this purpose we calculate and analyze the costs of alternative projects and their planned timing schedules. We present a cost- risk assessment of a set of timing schedules admissible within network constraints to compute a fussy set of Paretto-optimal plans. We also present our recommendations on how any timing schedule could be corrected.
Bespalov I. A. phoenix_w@mail.га
Keywords: dynamics investments assessment investment project reserves efficiency regional transportation project efficiency
Application of the fuzzy sets theory to assessment of the large-scale investment projects
The paper considers the issues of how to assess the efficiency of the large-scale investment projects. We offer an approach to choosing a preferred project among competitive ones when making a decision on the selection of an investment project. The approach is grounded upon both the principals of system analysis applied in the fuzzy sets theory and expert technologies. Our special focus is on how to assess the investment costs and their fluctuations depending on investment risks while the preproject analysis is being carried out. To make our calculation, we use a simulated case-study on «Transportation Network Project for Russian Far North and Far East»
Bespalov I. A. phoenix_w@mail.га
Keywords: uncertainty assessment Siberia Siberia reserves investment project efficiency uncertainty
