Search by keyword: uncertainty
Efficiency Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects Using the Model of Russian Economy
In this article, we modify the well-known inter-regional inter-sectoral optimization model (ОМММ), which makes it possible to incorporate a large-scale railway investment project. If the development of the national economy is deterministic, the model estimates the possible impact of the project on households' consumptive use. This helps to evaluate the macroeconomic efficiency of the project in the given development scenario. The uncertainty of economic development can be reflected in a representative set of scenarios. We consider the comparison of competing projects under the scenario uncertainty as a game against nature. We argue that Wald's criterion is appropriate for investors, whereas managers would possibly prefer Savage's criterion. If the projects use public funds, the interests of society and the government employees selecting projects for implementation may differ significantly due to inconsistency between the criteria.
Khutoretsky A. B. hab@dus.nsc.ru
Keywords: scenario uncertainty inter-regional inter-sectoral optimization model method of evaluation макроэкономическая эффективность uncertainty rail transportation
Managerial and Economic Mechanisms for Implementing the Russian Arctic Policy
The paper analyzes management risks Russia can face in implementing its arctic strategy, and the approaches to how coordinate national and regional priorities within this strategy. We prove a necessity to build an authorized body of the RF Government level whose mandate would be to coordinate the development and implementation of the development sub-programs and regional socio-economic strategies for Arctic area. We offer a project approach to administer the Arctic strategy.
Kharitonova V. N. kharit@ieie.nsc.ru
Keywords: Russian Arctic authorized coordinator Siberia strategy management management risks mega-project uncertainty
Assessing priorities of Siberian investment projects under incomplete Information
We offer the technique for assessing the economic effectiveness of regional investment projects. Novelty of the technique consists in fact that one can have such assessments only on the base of two indicators such as the investments required and sectoral belonging of projects. We also offer the economic effectiveness criteria which allow ordering the projects according to regional administrations' preferences within some packet of investment proposals. An example of calculations made on some real data is presented.
Koleda A. V. zaqzaqy@rambler.ru
Keywords: Siberia Siberia uncertainty investment project rates regional economic policy
Application of the fuzzy sets theory to assessment of the large-scale investment projects
The paper considers the issues of how to assess the efficiency of the large-scale investment projects. We offer an approach to choosing a preferred project among competitive ones when making a decision on the selection of an investment project. The approach is grounded upon both the principals of system analysis applied in the fuzzy sets theory and expert technologies. Our special focus is on how to assess the investment costs and their fluctuations depending on investment risks while the preproject analysis is being carried out. To make our calculation, we use a simulated case-study on «Transportation Network Project for Russian Far North and Far East»
Bespalov I. A. phoenix_w@mail.га
Keywords: uncertainty assessment Siberia Siberia reserves investment project efficiency uncertainty
