Search by keyword: area of Baikal-Amur Main Line (BAM)
Introducing Uncertainty into the Estimation of Effectiveness of Large Regional Transport Projects: Structural-Institutional Approach
The paper presents that standard methods for estimating effectiveness of capital investment projects are deterministic. Uncertainty and risks are introduced and declared but not described with proper terminology. As far as large capital investment projects are concerned, of which implementation influences the structure and price standards not only on departmental or regional markets but also on national ones, underestimation of “external effects”, for instance, could lead to costly errors. To resolve this issue, we propose to utilize a strategy games model where contrasting scenarios are generated using models from a family of an optimization interregional–interindustrial model. The article also shows the results of experimental calculations and an example of how to use the described model
Kibalov Ie. B. kibalovE@mail.ru
Keywords: large capital investment projects regional transport systems Siberia energy-output ratio assessment area of Baikal-Amur Main Line (BAM) uncertainty risks
The Oil-and-Gas Sector and Development of the Russian Economy
The paper analyzes the theoretical issues of an institutional rent by presenting a case study for the Russian oil-and-gas sector and how this sector influences the economy under different conditions of the world market. The calculations are made by applying the dynamic optimization models for money flows in the national economy. We assess how hydrocarbon prices of the world market influence the GDP dynamics, consolidated budget, and direct investments, and what minimal level of the oil prices should be to ensure a minimal effective level of the economic development. Our calculations show that there are resources to diversify the federal fiscal revenue but very few effective projects to realize this.
Kriukov V. A. kryukov@ieie.nsc.ru
Marshak V. D. v.d.marshak@mail.ru
Keywords: oil-and-gas sector oil-and-gas sector rent area of Baikal-Amur Main Line (BAM) money flows models commercial and public efficiency
Environment Pollution and Damage to Health: Current State and Compensation Mechanisms
The paper assesses the ecological situation in the Baikal region and how it affects the people health. We propose a technique for assessing the damage to health; application of tax tools to compensate damages; and a new technique for calculation of individual income taxes reflecting the level of pollution of territories where people reside.
Kireyenko A. P. kireenko-ap@isea.ru
Gorbunova O. I. olga1968111@rambler.ru
Keywords: Baikal region federal districts population health area of Baikal-Amur Main Line (BAM) Baikal region environment pollution
Building perspective cargo traffic in the North-East of Russia
The paper analyzes what development perspectives for productive forces of the North-East regions would make the deliveries of material resources and goods to these regions higher. The completion of the Amur-Yakutsk Mainline, as well as the projects on construction of a railway towards Magadan and development of a year-round highway network would completely transform a product distribution network connecting with the North-East regions. We present our assessment of feasibility of redistribution of the intra-regional cargo traffic, a pattern of the transport-logistic centers network and zones of their impact. We prove that import-export of material resources and goods can become more efficient should the cargo traffic if redistributed from the river transport to the Baikal-Amur Mainline, railway transport of Yakutia and Trans-Siberian Railway. The growing cargo traffic from the North-East regions will require the reconstruction of these strategic mainlines.
Kugayevsky A. A. ircentre@mail.ru
Keywords: the North-East of Russia cargo traffic area of Baikal-Amur Main Line (BAM) assessment import export cargo-generating units transport-logistic centers Baikal-Amur Mainline Trans-Siberian Railway
Assessing efficiency of the development of the Elginsky Field
The paper assesses the development of the Elginsky Coal Field located in the area of Baikal-Amur Main Line (BAM) by Discounted Cash Flow Analysis and Real Options Analysis. The latter allowed us to state that the decision made by the company «Russian Rail Ways» («RZhD») on its withdrawal from this project proved to be commercially erroneous. Applying a Black - Scholes model, we can state that a license price for the development of the Elginsky Coal Field proved to be underestimated at the public tender.
Shemetova V. G. viktoriya-shemetova@yandex.ru
Keywords: assessment area of the Baikal-Amur Railroad project area of Baikal-Amur Main Line (BAM) Elginsky Coal Field assessments real options analysis discounted cash flow analysis
