Search by keyword: fertility
Change in Reproductive Behavior in the Komi Republic: Factors and Consequences
The article analyzes the current fertility trends in the Komi Republic, changes in its structure concerning birth order, mother's age and marriageability. Basing on a cohort sociological study, we evaluate the impact of federal and regional demographic policy on the change in reproductive attitudes. The article states that recent public initiatives in this sphere have helped elongate positive fertility trend under a declining age structure, make up for births postponed by previous generations, increase the number of children per family, strengthen the role of the family infertility, as well as assisted in young families' early fertility. Federal and regional measures of demographic policy were the most beneficial for 1960's and 1970's generations who actualized them later in older age groups. Yet, regional measures of demographic policy aimed at encouraging having a third child appeared to be more universal. They did not only contribute to a further increase in fertility and faster rise in the proportion of higher-order births, but also improved reproductive planning, including among the youngest birth cohorts. We conclude that a gradual expansion of pro-family demographic measures can affect both the current fertility situation and its future prospects.
Popova L. A. popova@iespn.komisc.ru
Butrim N. A. butrim_dom@mail.ru
Shishkina M. A. shishkina@iespn.komisc.ru
Keywords: the Komi Republic reproductive attitudes maternity capital demographic policy intensity of fertility age structure fertility
Transformations of Demographic Processes in Yakutia
Our analysis of the population reproduction transformations observed in Yakutia shows that sources of the population changed. The natural population growth in the region does not balance the outward migration flows, and depopulation could be regarded as a current trend of the regional demographic development. The aggregate and crude birth rates are still high. Despite the rise in births over the previous decade, the population replacement has been observed. The high indicators of bastardy are still characteristic and this displays the existence of new forms of matrimonial behavior in the region. The number of deaths in the region still remains high whereas the expected lifespan is low. The transformations observed take place due to positive dynamics of infant mortality. In recent years a coefficient of outward migration flow dropped but it is twice as much in the region than in the Far East District in whole
Pakhomov A. A. a.a.pakhomov@prez.ysn.ru
Mostakhova T. S. mostakhovats@mail.ru
Keywords: Yakutia demographic indicators transformation fertility risks birth rate country trends
The Low Birth Rate Trap in Moscow: Highly-Educated Childfrees?
The article analyzes actual and normative reproductive behavior of the Muscovites. It demonstrates that high birth rate in Moscow is largely determined by women of reproductive age who are migrating from province. Having used data of sociologic study entitled Moscow and the Muscovites (“Moskva i moskvichi”), we define the character of relation between education and birth rate, as well as how the figures differ in Moscow and in Russia in whole. The paper discusses a childfree phenomenon which is spreading widely in Moscow. It is the growing women’s education level that influences the most on declining birth rate, while family income practically does not affect the number of children. The more the proportion of childless families is, the less judgmental the society becomes. Constant delay in giving birth is the result of shift in priorities towards education and career fraught with childlessness. Moscow with its demographic development and a focus on new social behavior patterns, largely following those of western cities, can be considered as an innovative region that eventually translates its practices to other major Russian cities. An expanding childfree phenomenon in Russian megalopolises which lack such a strong migration inflow may lead to aggravation of low birth rate problems. We give recommendations on further socio-demographic development of the region
Maleva T. M. maleva-tm@ranepa.ru
Tyndik A. O. tyndik-ao@rane.ru
Keywords: Moscow depopulation fertility Moscow education demographic situation
Assessing Factors of Regional Differentiation for Indicators Characterizing Population Reproduction in Russia
The paper demonstrates regional differentiation of indicators of natural population reproduction in Russia, domestic and foreign migration by federal districts. On the basis of econometric equations on panel data for 78 subjects of the Russian Federation in 2003-2011, we have identified significant factors influencing birth rate, death rate and life expectancy in Russia. Obtained quantitative evaluations are of considerable interest. In particular, increase in well-being and availability of housing has positive influence on birth rate. One of the main reasons for the Russian people to have fewer children is poor quality of life which does not satisfy current needs of the population and shows that social programs for young families support are very desirable. Maj or decrease in birth rate against the background of increasing proportion of urban population proves necessity to support and develop rural areas around large cities. Obtained assessments help to conclude that natural reproduction rate of the Russians is lower than the average one in the country. Excessive alcohol consumption reduces life expectancy by an average of1.59 years, and adverse climatic conditions do by an average of 0.47 years in comparison to the favorable Black Sea climate
Gilmundinov V. M. gilmundinov@mail.ru
Keywords: Russian federal districts fertility risks country birth rate death rate migration region
Regional opportunities in regulating a reproductive people's behavior
To make our recommendation on optimizing a demographic policy, we consider how people's reproductive behavior influences regional birth rates. Our case-study on the Vologda Oblast suggests that there is a trend to have a few children in families as people's reproductive plans could not be realized because of people's lack of confidence in the future economic stability in the country or stable family partner's relationships, or their dissatisfaction with their incomes, housing conditions, and healthcare and educational services. Within our case-study we developed the recommendations on the objectives to be included in the demographic policy for the Vologda Oblast and an interagency coordination plan to ensure higher birth rates in this region.
Dobrokhleb V. G. vdobrokhleb@mail.ru
Shabunova А. A. aas@vscc.ac.ru
Kalachikova O. N. onk82@yandex.ru
Keywords: depopulation fertility depopulation demographic policy management Vologda Oblast
Variable-based calculation of the people's life expectancies in the Vologda Oblast
The paper analyses the dependence of people's life expectancies and medical and demographic indicators in regions. A demographic situation in the Vologda Oblast shows a rise - its death rates down, birth rates and life expectancy up. Our variable-based calculations of the life expectancies in the region were made in assumption of downs in mortality and ups in death rates.
Lastochkina M. A. mashkop@mail.ru
Keywords: mortality life expectancy risks fertility population health
Socio-economic grounds for regulation of reproductive behavior
The paper analyzes human reproductive patterns as a key factor of fertility. At present when birth rates started to grow after a long drop, the analysis of what factors could shape the human reproductive patterns is of great importance. Applying a logistic regression, we analyze the economic, social and psychological reproductive attitudes (towards having a one-child- or several-children-family) of the population in Vologda Oblast. Such information is considered necessary for developing an effective socio-demographic policy.
Lastochkina M. A. mashkop@mail.ru
Keywords: reproductive patterns reproductive attitudes fertility logistic analysis
