Content №3 от 2015

Efficiency Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects Using the Model of Russian Economy

In this article, we modify the well-known inter-regional inter-sectoral optimization model (ОМММ), which makes it possible to incorporate a lar­ge-scale railway investment project. If the development of the national economy is deterministic, the model estimates the possible impact of the project on households' consumptive use. This helps to evaluate the macroeconomic effici­ency of the project in the given development scenario. The uncertainty of economic development can be reflected in a representative set of scenarios. We consider the comparison of competing projects under the scenario uncertainty as a game against nature. We argue that Wald's criterion is appropriate for investors, whereas managers would possibly prefer Savage's criterion. If the projects use public funds, the interests of society and the government employees selecting projects for implementation may differ significantly due to incon­sistency between the criteria.

Khutoretsky A. B. hab@dus.nsc.ru

Suslov N. I. nsus@academ.org

Keywords: scenario uncertainty inter-regional inter-sectoral optimization model method of evaluation макроэкономическая эффективность uncertainty rail transportation