Search by keyword: methodology

Developmental Trends of Energy and Heat Supply in Irkutsk Oblast

Basing on a systematic approach, the paper analyzes consumption and production of electric and thermal energy in Irkutsk Oblast and shows relations between economy and energy development. Contrast scenarios form prospective fuel and energy balances of the region. We have chosen the model describing how the regional energy development sector should preferably function and have made medium-term quantitative estimation for development levels of energy and heat consumption and the coating structure of electric charge. The article identifies deficit of electric power and proposes ways to reduce it. We consider whether it is reasonable to shift coal-fired stations to a combined (gas and vapor) cycle. The paper also present economic assessment of activities which aim to develop energy and heat supply systems in Irkutsk Oblast. We substantiate long-term development trends in the energy sector

Stennikov V. A. sva@isem.sei.irk.ru

Postnikov I. V. postnikov@isem.sei.irk.ru

Dobrovolskaya T. V. makarova@isem.sei.irk.ru

Keywords: region region electric and thermal energy methodology consumption and production

The role of the energy sector in the socio-economic development of the Baikal region

Having analyzed a current economic situation in the Baikal region, we can state that the region falls behind other Russian regions on average. The development of the regional fuel and energy complex is considered of the highest priority. We present our forecasts of the levels of energy consumption and related volumes of energy production in the region which could allow improving the regional fuel and energy balance and socio-economic indicators. This also allows the higher tax revenues in the region.

Saneev B. G. saneev@isem.sei.irk.ru

Sokolov A. D. sokolov@isem.sei.irk.ru

Korneyev A. G. korn@isem.sei.irk.ru

Muzychuk S. Yu. muz@isem.sei.irk.ru

Keywords: Baikal region energy sector socio-economic development socio-economic development energy consumption methodology economy fuel and energy resources

Assessing the efficiency of replacement of gas by coal in energy balance

The paper analyses, by applying a system of optimization models for cash flow analysis and forecasting, how effective a transfer of a part of the power generating capacities from gas to coal would be. We present a scenario analysis assuming both an increase of a gas export under a deficit of the time required to cover the demand exceeding those under the contracts already concluded, and the same volume of electric and thermal power produced. We assess the efficiency of such process from the point of view of the RF consolidated budget and gas and power producers.

Marshak V. D. v.d.marshak@mail.ru

Kriukov V. A. kryukov@ieie.nsc.ru

Kuznetsov A. V. torroo@gmail.com

Keywords: methodology energy budget development optimization models regions

Structural changes in the perspective fuel and energy balances

The paper considers methodological issues of how perspective fuel and energy balances can be drawn up and applied to the eastern regions of Russia. The structural transformations which could take place due to the energy industries progress in these regions are analyzed.

Saneev B. G. saneev@isem.sei.irk.ru

Sokolov A. D. sokolov@isem.sei.irk.ru

Muzychuk S. Yu. muz@isem.sei.irk.ru

Muzychuk R. I. rmuz@isem.sei.irk.ru

Keywords: eastern regions socio-economic development Far East energy consumption methodology strategy energy consumption

Improving the applied future energy consumption techniques

Having analyzed the Russian applied methodologies for electricity demand forecasting, the author focuses on regional components, and shows some dispute aspects. The author offers and validates the ways of how to improve the applied methodology. The paper presents the data concerning the Krasnoyarsk Kray and calculated according to both current methodology and improved one.

Lyubimova Ye. V. dukat@academ.org or kat@ieie.nsc.ru

Keywords: electric power consumption region scenarios region economy forecast methodology