Content №2 от 2022
Revenue of Russian Sub-Federal Budgets Under the Pandemic: a Spatial Reversal
The article studies consolidated budget revenues of Russia’s constituent entities. The purpose of our research is to analyze how the pandemic impacts the dynamics of sub-federal budget revenues and to assess contributions from various sources (tax, non-tax revenues, gratuitous receipts, and their components) to their change.
From the data on moving annual totals for sub-federal budgets and their components with a one-month shift, we construct linear time regressions for 86 constituent entities of the Russian Federation from 2015 till March 2020. They are used to forecast non-pandemic revenues of local budgets during the pandemic (April 2020 till June 2021). By decomposing deviations of the actual revenues from the forecast ones, we determine the contribution of different sources to changes in local budget revenues amid COVID-19.
The entities of the Ural Federal District and a few other oil-producing regions showed the greatest vulnerability to the pandemic. At the same time, an abnormally high growth in budget revenues was observed in some regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. Tax revenues had the greatest negative impact on the change in sub-federal budget revenues, where income tax provided most losses. Smaller disbenefits were associated with corporate property tax and special tax regimes. Personal income tax partially compensated for their shortfall. The change in taxes on goods and services was extremely uneven. Non-tax budget revenues followed tax ones, and the use of state property and sale of assets generated the largest losses. Interbudgetary transfers compensated for both the shortfall in own revenues and the growing regional expenditures. Their distribution reveals three motives: pandemic mitigation, regulation of interregional imbalances, and political preferences. Entities of the North Caucasian Federal District and some other lagging republics received a large fraction of additional transfers. Their structure is marked by a significant increase in the share of subsidies and other interbudgetary transfers, which reflected the state’s active participation in national projects and creating public goods. A decrease in the share of equalization grants implies a reduction in non-targeted aid allocated in accordance with uniform rules. This testifies to the state’s ever-growing dirigiste function in the economy.
The results obtained are applicable to governing budgetary revenues in Russian regions, as well as regulating interbudgetary relations during crises.
Spatial Structure of the Economy Transforming During and After Crises
The article is a scientific review to summarize the results of existing international and domestic studies on the development peculiarities and patterns typical of Russian regions during and after crises. It shows that the theoretical basis for studying this issue is the regional resilience concept, which has been rapidly evolving in foreign research since the 2010s, and analyzes its features in relation to regional growth theories and economic security studies. The factors influencing the regional resilience to economic crises are summarized as follows: features of the regional settlement system (urban to rural population ratio) and their place in the settlement system (position in relation to large urban agglomerations), the structure of regional economy (degree of its diversification, specialization, and employment structure), innovation potential and quality of human capital, cohesion of local communities, and quality of public administration. We discuss the stability of differences between regions in terms of their resilience, including how the features of regions’ spatial development in the current COVID-induced crisis are compliant with previously identified patterns, as well as the negative consequences of crises as regional divergence and a reduced inclusiveness of economic growth. The article examines ways to transform the state policy of spatial development during crises and possibilities of managing regional resilience.
Heterogeneity in the Spatial Development of Asian Russia: What Inter-Regional Inequality Indicators Are Silent About
Growing since the early 1990s, the heterogeneity of Russia’s Asian regions in terms of economic activity has reached high levels. Today, the economic space of Asian Russia is largely polarized, and the degree of socio-economic inequality in the regions of Asian Russia exceeds the degree of inequality in those of its European part. The purpose of this study is to analyze the polarization process in the regions of Asian Russia by economic activity indicators in 2000-2019 and to obtain extrapolation forecasts of economic activity distribution there in the long run.
The study relies on methods of analyzing distribution dynamics, using the theory of Markov random processes with discrete time and continuous state space. The application of these methods made it possible to achieve the following: assess the actual distribution of indicators of economic activity in the regions of Asian Russia at the beginning and end of the period under consideration and conclude about its increasing polarization; obtain an extrapolation forecast of economic activity distribution in the regions in the long run, i.e., a forecast of long-term spatial equilibrium; identify and characterize groups of regions forming “convergence clubs" in the long run. The analysis suggests that the capacity to further intensify economic space polarization is not yet exhausted. If the current trends persist, the identified “clubs" of regions will become more dissimilar. The study’s findings should be considered when deciding upon regional policy measures.
Methodological Basis for the Development of a Regional Innovation Subsystem Based on Process-Resource Approach
One of the key factors in the socio-economic development of the region is higher innovation activity. There exist many methodological approaches to the study of regional innovation subsystems. However, the problems of their development have not been sufficiently covered from the point of view of the internal content of the innovation process in the region. According to the authors, a regional innovation subsystem should be considered from the standpoint of the continuity and effectiveness of the innovation process. This allows for the convergence of the resource-oriented approach to the formation of the elements in a subsystem and the process approach to its development. The proposed process-resource approach is based on the following idea. Long-term effective development of a regional innovation subsystem is only possible under the condition of the innovation process continuity, related to the sufficiency of resource provision and the effectiveness of its every stage.
Changes in Citizens’ Transportation Behavior During COVID-19 Pandemic (the Case of St. Petersburg and Beijing)
The paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of changes in transportation behavior of Saint Petersburg and Beijing residents that occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The research is meant to identify the factors that had the greatest impact on citizens’ transportation behavior during the pandemic in Saint Petersburg and Beijing. Based on the residents’ survey data, we find out that similar quarantine measures had different effectiveness in the two cities, depending on characteristics of transportation behavior that city dwellers exhibited. The research methodology involves the analysis of open data, as well as of descriptive statistics on the primary data. Our deductions can be used while designing urban transportation policy aimed at changing the characteristics of citizens’ transportation behavior, including quarantine regulations. The main conclusion of the study is that the effectiveness of quarantine measures taken by the city authorities depends to a large extent on citizens’ behavioral pattern developed before the pandemic.
Sokolova E. V. sokolova@gsom.spbu.ru
Railways of European and Asian Russia: Organizational Design as a Strategic Element
The article analyzes the problem of European and Asian Russia railways development as a dual-use system: 1) as a basic element in the economic development of Siberian and Far Eastern territories, still having focal development, and 2) as military-strategic communications in case the collective West attempts to shift from the “cold" to the “hot war" methods against Russia, specifically in the Arctic regions therein and the adjacent waters of the Arctic and Pacific oceans. Our objects of analysis are options for the organizational design of the country’s railroad transportation, which arise from the choice of a large-scale project as an implementation priority in macroregions east of the Urals. A group of experts evaluates these options at a pre-investment feasibility stage, supported by a specially designed software system. The proposed apparatus for assessing and selecting the most preferable organizational design in the long term has been tested for efficiency and adaptability to the existing practice of making complex investment decisions at the macrolevel under uncertainty.
Current Problems of Agriculture in Tuva: Production, Investment, and Innovative Aspects
The article sets forth the results of a study on the current state of agriculture of the Tyva Republic (Tuva) with respect to investment and innovation. First, we outline problems hindering the further development of agriculture in Tuva and analyze how primary branches of agricultural production faired in 2015-2020 inside a multi-structured economy. The roles that farms of various categories play in agricultural production are defined next. We also show the volumes and dynamics of investment attracted to agriculture over the considered period and emphasize how important the state is in investment support for agriculture. The paper examines problems of agricultural development along with the contribution of agricultural science to advancing innovation and draws a conclusion about the need for innovative development of agriculture in the region.
Green Clusters as a Tool for Greening Tourism
The lack of generally accepted understanding of the essence of green tourism and the mechanism of switching tourism to green economy constitutes a scientific problem. By analyzing both domestic and foreign tourism clustering theory and practice, as well as the rapidly emerging green economy conception, we have managed to put forward a hypothesis about the possibility and expediency of integrating the processes of clustering and tourism ecologization, and the ability of a green tourism cluster to operate as one of the tools in the mechanism of green tourism transformation. The purposes of the study are as follows: to develop a conceptual model of a green tourism cluster as a tool for tourism ecologization, to identify possible influence of its activities on the processes of environmentally oriented transformation of the sectoral and regional economy.
The study uses a methodological approach to greening tourism, integrating clustering and ecologization processes with a broad understanding of green economy as applied to the tourism sector. The paper concludes as we define and draw a conceptual model for the green tourism cluster. That includes the structure of a simulated system, participants, main internal and external connections, goals and principles of interaction, and expected system effects resulting from the green tourism cluster’s activity.
Whether the cluster approach is applicable to the problem of tourism ecologization is poorly studied, which determines further prospects of research. The conceptualization of green tourism clusters will allow improving the efficiency of already established tourism clusters, ensuring their competitiveness by entering new, green markets, and creating regional-level entities actively transitioning to green economy.
Sino-Russian Trade and Economic Cooperation: Problems and Prospects
Despite Sino-Russian cooperation developing fast universally in the 21st century, the level of trade and economic cooperation does not correspond with that of the other spheres. The initial goal was to reach trade turnover at 100 billion USD by 2015 and 200 billion USD by 2020. Till now, both sides have failed to achieve this for the following trends prevail in Russia: simple trade, low level of investment and inter-banking relations, as well as poor international trade-related infrastructure. The article describes the current situation in Sino-Russian trade and economic cooperation and proposes improvement measures.
The Contradictory Effects of Heterogeneous Market Potential on Russian Urban Development
This paper examines the development of Russia’s urban system from 1991 to 2020 and explores the impact of external and internal factors on urban growth. Our methods of analysis include descriptive statistics and regression equations for the dependence of city size and urban growth rates on internal and external development resources. The analysis shows no rapid increase in urban population or skyrocketing growth of the largest cities in Russia. The paper proposes and tests the hypothesis that, due to how controversial the impact of agglomeration factors on urban growth is, weak changes in the urban system are consistent with the presence of and are resulting from market mechanisms.
The indicator of market potential, which acts as an integral characteristic of the capacity and availability of external markets, is used as a measure of market size and the possibility of agglomeration effects. We distinguish three types of external markets: 1) cities within the home region; 2) rural settlements in the home region; and 3) other constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Econometric evaluations have shown different components of market potential to contribute oppositely. Competitive effects dominated in interaction with other areas, and interregional market potential was a negative factor for the city size and growth. The market potential of the home region was only used effectively in rural areas. Connections with markets of cities within the region were less significant, which further reduced the sources of development. In addition to external markets, the level of specialization, availability of housing, and social infrastructure were all significant factors for the city growth.
The obtained results argue for the government support of initiatives and institutions of interregional and intermunicipal cooperation, economic and technological partnerships between cities and regions, projects of wide scope across several territories, as well as institutions and organizational mechanisms to manage them.
Regional and Municipal Governance in the Growing Digital Economy and Information Society
The article studies contemporary problems of managing regional socio-economic development amidst digital economy and proposes new methodological approaches to governance at regional and municipal levels, including promoting the idea of a strategic approach to governance, designing elements of a new governance mechanism based on digital technologies, implementing effective methods of state regulation of the regional economy, forming a regional information infrastructure, and providing integrated solutions to social and economic issues.
We show that regional and municipal levels of governance are ill-prepared when it comes to switching to new forms of digital economy and information society growth. Based on generalized experience of how regional and municipal authorities operate, assessment of governance efficiency, and strategic planning procedures, we suggest ways of improving regional and municipal governance to increase its efficiency, strengthen the innovative orientation of governance via digital technologies and enhance the cooperation between state and market institutions in regions.
