Content №2 от 2022
Heterogeneity in the Spatial Development of Asian Russia: What Inter-Regional Inequality Indicators Are Silent About
Growing since the early 1990s, the heterogeneity of Russia’s Asian regions in terms of economic activity has reached high levels. Today, the economic space of Asian Russia is largely polarized, and the degree of socio-economic inequality in the regions of Asian Russia exceeds the degree of inequality in those of its European part. The purpose of this study is to analyze the polarization process in the regions of Asian Russia by economic activity indicators in 2000-2019 and to obtain extrapolation forecasts of economic activity distribution there in the long run.
The study relies on methods of analyzing distribution dynamics, using the theory of Markov random processes with discrete time and continuous state space. The application of these methods made it possible to achieve the following: assess the actual distribution of indicators of economic activity in the regions of Asian Russia at the beginning and end of the period under consideration and conclude about its increasing polarization; obtain an extrapolation forecast of economic activity distribution in the regions in the long run, i.e., a forecast of long-term spatial equilibrium; identify and characterize groups of regions forming “convergence clubs" in the long run. The analysis suggests that the capacity to further intensify economic space polarization is not yet exhausted. If the current trends persist, the identified “clubs" of regions will become more dissimilar. The study’s findings should be considered when deciding upon regional policy measures.
