Content №2 от 2003
Development strategy of the Ural Federal District: growth potential.
A great resource and huge industrial potential makes the Ural region a connecting-link in the national economy, a catalyst in the formation of the Russian unified economic space. The outlook of the Ural Federal District to 2015 is further integration of its regions and maximum effect of this integration for social security purposes. It is planned to double per capita incomes against the 2002 level and bring them to the pre-reform 1991 level, to eliminate the long-standing indigence and to increase the incomes of 40% of the population (low-income groups) to two or three survival norms. In order to reach the sustainable economic growth and improve industrial output, it is necessary to put it on a new basis by restoration of the unified reproduction process, implementing restructuring and creating a competitive industry and modern technologies. By 2010 the share of resource sector will be down 1.5-2%, the share of science-intensive sector will make 13.3%, the share of socially-oriented sector will increase insignificantly (0.9%).
Optimal planning of experiment in sectoral and regional studies: theory and application.
Methods for optimum planning of economic processes are consecutively considered in the paper at sector, regional and interregional levels. It is suggested that theories of optimum planning should be connected with simple Markov chains. The notions of continuously planning the experiment in building transition matrices for regional analysis and interregional comparisons are given on the case of regional balances of incomes and expenditures of the RF households.
Prediction of economic damage from development of coal fields of the eastern regions.
The paper reports original predictive calculations evaluating economic harm to the environment from the man-caused effect of coal industry in Russia's eastern areas. The analysis of scientific-technological developments has shown that rational land use and waste processing are major means to decrease the harm. It is shown that if the environmental protection stays at the present level, in 20 years the harm will cost about US$140 million yearly (a pessimistic variant). The most plausible variant of harm reduction 1.3 to 1.6 times against the pessimistic variant is due to use of the available environmental technologies. The introduction of appropriate technologies will allow the damage to be reduced sharply - to 2020 to $0.05 per coal ton region-wide, and to $0.1 Kuzbas-wide. The reduction of the specific damage in this variant will help set off the increased total damage caused by more intensive coal production. This variant is possible only if the conservation activity is subsidized by the state.
The influence of political factors on region's economic growth.
A systemic-dynamic model of the regional development was built with account of the real conditions in the Krasnoyarsk krai. The estimation with this model shows that the economic growth of the krai (changes in the real incomes of the households) is influenced by political situation in the region (discord between executive and legislative branches of power and between mayor and business elite). The economic situation (rate of inflation), in its turn, influences the political dimension (social tension).
Spatial effect of state regulation
The paper considers two ways in which the state can influence the regional deve lopment, which are regionalization of federal social and economic policy and the instruments of state regional policy. The challenges of and hindrances to this regulation are arranged as a system, and a general scheme evaluating the effect of each way is suggested. Basic provisions of comprehensive procedure designed to reduce regional disparities are formulated.
Sakhalin and Russia: formation and evaluation of alternative organizational-economic mechanisms of consolidated development.
The conducted study of the Sakhalin region has shown that its social situation is disastrous. In spite of its economic significance for the country (upper third among all regions), high resource potential, governmental support within the federal program for the Far East, the state of affairs in the last three years have changed to the worse. By amount and quality of resources and by investment risks Sakhalin is a zone of high uncertainty. In order to utilise the region's potential, increase per capita incomes and ensure its consolidated development as part of the Russian Federation, a new economic mechanism of management must be created. The main principles of the formation and evaluation of such a mechanism are set forth.
Working time as a resource of material well-being.
The study shows in what way the processes of transition influenced the working hours of the working population of Russia's regions in the second half of the 1990s; how much the working time as a resource of growth of household incomes has been used in the present context; and what potential exists for further increase of work load considering the present state of health of the working population.
Unemployed rural population of the Novosibirsk region in a sociological survey.
The paper reports the findings of a social study of the unemployed population conducted by the authors in 2002. The survey was carried out in all the rural districts of the Novosibirsk region with the use of a combined, stratified (three-stage) quota sample. The size of the sample was 1649 unemployed people. The results of the study present social and demographic characteristics and economic situation of the unemployed, causes and features of their unemployment and their social and job expectations, hidden (informal) employment and the role of state agencies in the solution of their problems. The conclusions in the study are based on the revealed tendencies.
Spatial-strategic development of Russia: conflict-network paradigm of analysis
A new role of the spatial-strategic position of Russia under global competition is viewed through a prism of the conflict-network paradigm. The central notions of the conflict-network paradigm are the space of the world process, globalization of the world process, hierarchy of global network structures in the space of the world process, formed by interaction and ties between the agents of the world process (nation-states, political alliances of states, trans-national corporations, regions of different countries, international cities-regions, global, criminal and terrorist organisations, religious structures etc.), conflicts in the network structures of different level and between those of the same level, constructive and destructive solutions of the conflicts. Conflict in this paradigm is not an abnormal, but normal social phenomenon. The conflict-network paradigm equips the researchers with modern instruments permitting them to evaluate and analyse complexes of interrelated problems of dynamics and development of Russia's geo-economic space and ways for their solution under global competition. The conflict-network paradigm is used in the analysis of situation, problem solving, scenario building, strategic decision-making on the dynamics of geo-strategic spaces world-, country- and region-wide. The authors give an example of the use of the conflict-network paradigm for analysis of different approaches to understanding the role and challenges of Siberia in the long run reflected in the variants of development strategy for Siberia.
Siberian wood complex: from strategy of survival to development.
The transition of wood-processing industry from a stage of survival to the stage of development requires a more efficient exploitation and realization of the value of timber. In high-forested areas, with available roads and rail networks, such complexes determine the capacity and the future of the whole wood-processing complex of Siberia. The stage of development will require designing specific strategies to reach an economic compromise between the nature and configuration of the terrain, the industrial objective of the wood-processing unit and the market for wood products. In this connection, the authors recommend to in the Siberian Federal District to use a system of management by areas of natural flow separately for high-forested areas with well developed and economically accessible wood resources and developed wood-processing industry; for middle- and high-forested areas with poor access for transport; and for low-forested areas which cannot make a basis for efficient wood-harvesting production.
Problems of development of Siberian river transport.
A retrospective analysis of the factors of economic efficiency of the Siberian river transport revealed main causes for low efficiency of its capital investments after 1975 and the negative role of the conceptual framework accepted in the 1930s which led to unjustified mega-projects and overestimation of the effect of scale of economy. The key problems and possible ways of their solution in the present market environment are identified.
A conception of strategic objective of local governments
The paper considers the acute problems of per capita incomes faced by municipalities. In the strategy of their development emphasis is made on investments in human capital. For the case of social and economic problems of reconstructed mining settlements a modification of social audit method is used.
Integration resource of Novosibirsk regional economic growth.
The study showed that the extra openness of the economy of the Novosibirsk region slows the economic growth. This situation can be corrected through closer technological and economic integration of businessmen of different regions. To this end, it is required to develop a conceptual framework of the joint development of the regions of the South of Western Siberia. For the purposes of coordination of the policy implemented by leaders of different level it is suggested creating Commission on Social and Economic Development of the Siberian Federal District, Executive Committee as an office of the RF Ministry of Economy and Trade in the Siberian Federal District and several coordination councils as consultative bodies with participation of representatives from business and from residents.
