Search by keyword: development scenarios
Measurements in the Space of Regional Indicators: Methodology, Methods, Results
The paper discusses what approaches to forming development indicators for a multi-regional system of the Russian Federation provide accurate interregional comparisons. We propose methods to identify stable topological structures in the space of regional indicators, to build an ordered system of regional clusters and to analyze inter-cluster connections. The article formulates principles and methods of elaborating a genetic scenario which depicts how the Russian multi-regional system develops basing on the evolutionary approach. It calculates development vectors of forecasting indicators for regions of the Russian Federation till 2030. We define the regularity with which the cloud of regional indicators changes its configuration, capacity and content of clusters. We also suggest an approach to analyze spatial transformations of the Russian economy under the macroeconomic conditions of its modernization scenario
Suspitsyn S. A. susp@ieie.nsc.ru
Keywords: regional indicators multi-regional system stable topological structures development scenarios
Spatial structure of the Russian economy: analyzing its dynamics through application of genotyping methods
The paper analyzes a range of regional indicators and composite indices characterizing the development in the subjects of the Russian Federation over 2000-2007 and 2008-2010. We offer a technique based on the spatial and temporal laws of socio-economic development and designated for building generalized curves (genotypes) to describe regional development. We also present our forecasts of how the RF multiregional system could develop within the context of the given genetic scenario
Suspitsyn S. A. susp@ieie.nsc.ru
Keywords: regional economy innovations regional economy development scenarios Russian regions multiregional system
The development of the Siberian regions in the context of a genetic scenario
The paper describes the methodology and techniques of the socio-economic development forecasts for Siberia and its regions by applying a genetic approach. We present our assessments of what spatial transformations could take place in the Siberian Federal District under conditions of a regional self-development scenario.
Suspitsyn S. A. susp@ieie.nsc.ru
Keywords: Siberia regional economy development scenarios Siberia forecasts стратегии spatial transformations
Comparative assessment of post-crisis restart of regional economic growth (perspectives for the near future)
The paper analyses the statistical assessments concerning Russian regional development in 2007-2008, and gives a forecast of the socio-economic regional development for the period of time up to 2011. The scale of the recovery growth by 2012 is presented here as well as the basic trends in spatial structure. Our calculations show that most RF regions, within the framework of an experts’ moderately optimistic scenario of possible development in the Russian Federation, will overcome an active phase of their economic recession by 2012.
Suspitsyn S. A. susp@ieie.nsc.ru
Keywords: spatial structure of economy interregional comparison regional consequences of economic crisis development scenarios mid-range forecast
