Content №2 от 2007
Economic assessment of knowledge-based projects
Having used a real-option-method, the authors assess the contribution of the new high technology mega-projects to GNP growth. The paper analyzes the innovative potential of standard projects through evaluating their commercial and social effectiveness. The paper also considers the approach to the distribution of the net present value in different economic sectors obtained by implementing the projects. The authors calculate the multiplier of direct and second-order effects that allow assessing a growth of the gross value added per unit of the investments made into the projects.
Bobylev G. V. bobylev@ieie.nsc.ru
Regional high-tech clusters: managing the effectiveness
The paper gives a methodical approach to modeling the indicators of effectiveness for cluster-forming enterprises. The paper presents the case-study on identifying the subsets of the endogenous and exogenous parameters which primarily define the effectiveness in the high-tech companies’ clusters in Novosibirsk City. The analysis includes the assessment of each factor’s contribution to the companies’ effectiveness and the comparison of identified factors’ impacts as well as the evaluation of the internal and external potential of development in the companies.
Agglomerative and network-based structure of the populated localities: new opportunities in Southern Siberia
The paper considers possibilities to form a system of populated localities in the southern regions of East Siberia which could be alternative to that formed by the hyper-urbanization processes of the last decade. The author proves that the way how such alternative system will develop depends on the type of transport system, and offers the approach to the analysis of such dependence. The paper also considers the potential variants of how the transport system could be changed in the southern regions of East Siberia. The author concludes that the rail transport plays a key role in solving such problem, and offers an optimal scheme to build the transport system based on the rail transport technologies.
Exotic hedging options in the foreign economic activity: comparative analysis
The paper analyses the situation when Russian exporter receives his/her proceeds from abroad and wants to have them converted at the most favorable exchange rate in three month. There are some hedging options available to the exporter such as - a simple option (ordinary put) or a number of exotic forms including a barrier option, Asia one or a lookback option. The calculations of the option premiums made through mathematical models show that with a declining dollar exchange rate over the first quarter of 2003, an ordinary put premium was equal to zero, and therefore it was unlikely to be executed. A lookback option proved to be a single instrument allowing the opportunity to sell at the maximum possible exchange rate. The option was executed in the first quarter of 2003 because it was the same as initial one, and the exporter gained. In the first quarter of 2005, the dollar’s exchange rate varied more drastically because of the higher volatile exchange rate. Although the lookback put was profitable to the exporter, it would be more advisable for the exporter to use the barrier options. Which of four barrier options is being executed depends on whether the investor’s expectations coincide with the dynamics of the dollar’s exchange rate. The paper also describes the case where the investor’s expectations and the up-and-in put conditions coincide
Tax climate and the economy of the Siberian Federal District
The author shows that there is a link between taxes and the economic development in regions and there are instruments in regions to influence on the distribution of capital and labor as well as on their location such as - to create a favorable tax climate. The definition to a tax climate is given by the author. The paper analyzes how the tax revenues in the units of the Siberian Federal District depend on GRP as well as how a tax burden influences on GRP rates and foreign investments. The results obtained prove the fact that there is a close link between the tax revenues and GRP while no clear correlation between the tax burden and rates of GRP growth as well as between the tax burden and foreign investments have been observed.
Balance between economic and fiscal situation in Russian regions
The highly abnormal inhomogeneity of Russian economic space has become a reason for experts’ increased attention to the dynamics of moving forces and trends in the differentiation of Russian regions and to the analysis of the key equalizing fiscal transfer tools. Having analyzed GRP per capita over 1996-2004, the author considers interregional differences in the economic development in RF units and states the fact that the differentiation had drastically increased in the 2000s. The growing asymmetry of recent years could be completely explained by the dynamic development in two leading regions alone. No visible changes in differentiation over the rest territory of Russia have been observed. On the contrary, the economic development indicators show a cluster convergence process to be in progress along with the growing differentiation of regional fiscal capacities. This trend can be seen even if the leading regions are excluded from the analysis.
Imitation modelling approaches to the assessment of foreign exchange risks
The author shows that no universal approach to measuring and assessing an exchange risk has been observed in the practice of Russia’s risk banking management. Toward this end, as the author has proved, a stochastic simulation technique could be regarded applicable. The paper describes the algorithm to calculate possible losses if this technique is used. The author also has analyzed a correlation matrix and the volatility of the moneys usually used by Russian operators to make their payments on foreign markets. The paper considers different variants of how external factors determine a portfolio value and the risks as well. The recommendations on choosing a proper risk management strategy are presented by the author.
Assessing demand for Russian wood on Asian-Pacific markets: methodical approaches
The forestry in Russia has experienced serious troubles since the early 1990s such as - the obsolescent capacities and the deteriorating infrastructure and resource base. All these are not much conducive to an investment inflow into the sector. Even the sector’s export orientation does not shift the situation – the permanently growing export had not brought the tangible gains and concomitant investments. The paper describes the state of affairs in the sector and the challenges to be addressed. A deep and quantitative analysis of the economic situation in the sector is required to be made to regard the centralization in the sector as an optimal and comprehensive way to solve its problems. The author considers the methodological approaches to modeling a market demand, and concludes that the flexible functional forms, i.e. the modified AIDS-models, proved to be the most advisable instrument of the quantitative description of demand for forestry products.
Local community: socio-territorial structure and real boundaries
The author proves the importance of researching into a socio-territorial structure of society. The author shows a status and the roles of a local community within a socio-territorial structure of society. The paper describes the methodical principles of how to identify community’s boundaries since their identifying is a principle way to study a socio-territorial structure of society. The author demonstrates some aspects of the proposed approach through a case-study carried out in 2003, 2005, and 2006 in Berdsk City, the right-bank area of the Sovetsky district in Novosibirsk City and the area located between Berdsk City and Novosibirsk City.
Social nets in local community
Local communities are regarded as the important elements of a socio-territorial structure of society. The author uses a network analysis to study local communities, i.e. through localizing social interactions between inhabitants within a community. Such approach allows identifying the actual community boundaries as well as describing a community’s present life and its prospects for further being - to survive as a community or to die. The paper presents the case-study on social nets existing in the local community of Akademgorodok (the academic and research campus) in Novosibirsk City.
Issues of shaping demand for social services
The paper considers a demand for social services and the trends in its change by analyzing sociological parameters. The peculiarity of consumption of social services is related to the fact that the consumption of fee-based services is primarily dictated by an effective demand. If we want to develop a regional market of social services, both markets - of fee-based services and free services- should be enlarged as well as a quality of services – be improved.
Reproductive human potential in the Vologodskaya Oblast
The paper analyses a reproductive human potential in the Vologodskaya Oblast which is a major constituent of the regional demographic and socio-economic development and a consequence of the latter. The authors have shown that the regional fertility depends on not only economic factors but also ideological, mental and ethical ones. The paper proves that the development of the reproductive human potential is affected by not only medical parameters but also by demographic, social and economic indicators. Therefore, the task to maintain the regional reproductive human potential is directly connected with the tasks of providing young families and unmarried mothers with better social guaranties, incomes and housing. The better support for the social sphere and better medical care is the way to improve the reproductive situation in the region.
Personal relations on labor market and individual’s strategies of employment
The fact, that personal relations as a “looking-for-a-job” channel are widely used, prompts the idea of a universal character this channel. To prove this hypothesis, the author considers the statistics of how frequently the different channels had been used on the labor markets by the persons employed in the “RMEZ”-enterprise in 1998-2004 (the Siberian Federal District) and presents his classification of different types of the employment strategies according to the criterion whether there is/is not person’s addressing to social nets as an employment channel among other channels. Within the framework of the human and social capital concept, the paper analyses the professional and labor status of individuals who had used his personal relations to become employed.
Modernizing management in oil-ad-gas complex in the Chechen Republic
The paper states that it is unlikely to succeed in quick restoring the economy of the Chechen Republic only through federal funding. It had happened at least twice to the Republic to restore its destroyed economy - after the Civil War in Russia and the World War II. Today the successful restoration primarily depends on how its oil-and-gas sector will develop. Presently this sector governs the economic development in the Republic. It is a sector where market relations have developed without public subventions much quicker than in any other sectors. To increase its effectiveness, the author offers the idea to create a united regional complex managed by the body allowing for a specific role, which the sector plays in the regional economy, as well as taking into account the necessity to ensure a full governmental control over all enterprises of the complex. The structure and functions of such managerial body is also presented by the author.
Regional insurance companies: assessing their investment potential
The paper considers the role which insurance companies play in the regional financial and economic infrastructures, and proves the necessity of developing insurance business in regions and making an investment into this sector. The author suggests using a business value as an indicator of the insurance company’s investment potential, and offers the technique to assess this indicator relating both to a company and to a region. The technique is based on the Black-Showls’ model. The author also offers the technique to calculate a business value/ sales return multiplier based on the business value of the market segment, and presents his calculation of this indicator for regional companies. The paper includes the recommendations on increasing the investment attractiveness of regional insurance companies.
Novosibirsk City’s innovation system: features and further development
The paper discusses the issues concerning regional innovation systems (RIS), their structures, competitiveness factors and levels of their development. The paper describes and compares the characteristics of different RIS in Russian regions. The paper also assesses the innovation system in the Novosibirsk Oblast. The authors analyze the environment and an internal situation in the high-tech companies operating in Novosibirsk City and identify the key factors which make their operation successful. The authors discuss the challenges concerning the RIS in Novosibirsk and offer the instruments to improve its competitiveness.
Gvozdeva E. S. elena@ieie.nsc.ru
New ecologically clean energy technologies: assessing their effectiveness
The paper has proved that the energy deficit is presently observed and it could not be eliminated only through renewing or modernizing blocks of power stations. The new ecologically clean energy technologies based on coal combustion are required to be widely promoted. Today there are a number of the ecologically clean coal technologies notable for their high effectiveness and ecological characteristics. The assessment of applying such technologies should include not only economic components but also ecological ones.
Development strategies of the innovation companies
The paper analyses the strategic and institutional capacities of the innovation companies in Akademgorodok, Novosibirsk City. Two types of companies - the public companies (or public laboratories) operating under research institutions and the private knowledge-based companies - are the subject of this analysis. The author shows that the alliance between both types could be regarded as a new impact for the companies and for the region as well to acquire the higher competitive advantage.
Sustainable development in local communities: regulating institutional conditions
The paper analyses the role which public policies play in building the resource and institutional capacities for sustainable development in local communities. The author shows main directions of the federal strategy which would allow the local authorities to use its public property as an instrument of the socio-economic development. The author also shows that the ongoing administrative reform as well as the reforms in local governance, science and education has brought to Russia both the new challenges and the new opportunities to local governance.
Analysis of Novosibirsk City’s budget
The paper considers the key fiscal indicators for Novosibirsk City and offers the technique of assessing a city’s budget and the intergovernmental fiscal flows. Having applied this technique, the author has calculated these indicators over 1996-2004 and has analyzed the balance between fiscal revenue and expenditures (the balance between local revenues and regional transfers, and its dependence on the latter). And finally, through applying the budgetary coefficients technique, the author has analyzed the stability of City’s budget.
Influence of socio-economic factors on individual’s electoral behavior
The paper considers the theoretical aspects of researching into an individual’s electoral behavior and the methodical issues of identifying the individual’s political identification. The individuals’ political identification is an important factor which forms individual’s electoral choice. The paper presents a case-study on the socio-economic aspects in generating the political identification of the people living in Berdsk City as well as how the individuals’ political identification affects their electoral behavior. Having analyzed the electoral behavior types classified by the political identification, the author states that the correlation between an individual’s socio-economic status and his/her political identification has been observed.
Integral approaches in the organization theory
The paper considers the holistic approaches developed by G. Gebser, A. Maslow and D. Beck to study the classification of the life necessities and a “values matrix” which individuals consider the most vital at the different stages of their life. The author shows how the approaches could be applied in shaping a human resource management policy. This topic became vital as a new post neoclassical paradigm of social sciences and a postindustrial society concept based on the regenerated ideas of humanism and the idea that a human being’s spirit must dominate over the “industrial machine” mechanicalism had begun shaping The approaches under consideration could be applied in everyday practice too in building a management model for any social institute including a private enterprise, or they could be applied, what is extremely important, in resolving conflicts which arise in the unstable and disputable situations or in multinational societies.
