Content №4 от 2025
“Pivot to the East” in Russian Regional Policy: Expectations and Realities
The article presents estimates of the impact of the policy of “Russia’s Pivot to the East" on the development of Siberia and the Far East. Regional policy measures designed to create preferential economic regimes and attract people and investments to the eastern regions are described. It is shown that preferential conditions were created for the Far East, Siberia was on the periphery of the “eastern regional policy". The article analyzes the indicators of economic growth and structural changes in the eastern regions, the impact of sanctions on them. It is shown that the development of transport and logistics infrastructure in the eastern regions has become an important factor ensuring the reorientation of Russia’s foreign economic relations to friendly countries.
The sources and structure of investment in fixed capital are considered. It is noted that the high share of investment in infrastructure and mining does not allow to ensure high rates of GRP growth in the eastern regions even at high rates of investment growth. The regional policy measures taken have not led to fundamental changes in the social sphere of the eastern regions. Population outflow persists, Siberia and the Far East lag behind the national average in terms of real incomes and wages, and unemployment remains higher. The qualitative characteristics of growth have not improved: the share of mineral extraction in the GRP structure has increased, and the share of high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries has decreased.
The implementation of the “turn to the East" policy ensured the attraction of significant amounts of investment to the eastern regions, primarily to the Far East, and became an important factor in Russia’s adaptation to sanctions, but the expected breakthrough in the development of the eastern regions did not occur. Structural and social problems persist in the eastern regions, the solution of which in modern conditions through massive attraction of external resources to the eastern regions is unlikely.
Spatial Development of Contemporary Russia: Determinants, Mechanisms, Results
The aim of the paper is to study the response of the spatial structure of the Russian economy to macroeconomic and global shocks in 1995-2022. The research methods are descriptive statistics, Theil indices and econometric analysis. The study shows that Russia’s economic activity is gradually migrating from east to west, from the periphery to the European center and from regions of resource specialization to regions where manufacturing prevails. The factors of spatial evolution are accumulated production and human capital, market potential and agglomeration economy; the directions and results of their work are determined by the market mechanism. No changes in the influence of factors due to the transformation of the external environment have been identified in recent years. State participation has a significant impact on regional business activity, but its contribution is limited and does not trigger the eastern vector of development. The spatial maneuver to the east requires a change in the existing trends in spatial development. To solve this problem, government initiatives should include large-scale financial and organizational support for a set of large projects with an economic growth multiplier localized mainly in the east of the country.
Turbulence of Innovative Development of Russian Regions
This article examines the stability of the institutional model for innovative economic development in mesoeconomic systems, known as the “Triple Helix Model," from the perspective of “wave" turbulence theory. It argues for the applicability of turbulence as a framework for describing processes within innovation markets. The analysis is based on regional statistics of innovative economic development in the subjects of the Russian Federation. The methodology includes multivariate statistical analysis (classification, factor analysis), time series analysis (spectral analysis), and cognitive modeling to represent and simulate system interactions in regional mesoeconomic systems. The research novelty lies in quantitatively demonstrating the significant importance, for innovative development, of having traditional industrial sectors within the federal subjects that are motivated to adopt innovations. An innovation impulse originating in the economies of these regional systems can trigger turbulent processes that lead to synergistic effects, ultimately establishing a sustainable path for innovative development.
Factors of Economic Resilience of Russian Regions During the Crises of 2009, 2014, and 2020
The article analyzes the factors that contributed to the economic resilience demonstrated by Russian regions during the periods of crisis experienced in 2009, 2015, and 2020. The objective of the present study is to identify the universal factors that affect the resilience of regional economies to crises. This is of significant importance for the development of effective regional development strategies. The primary hypothesis assumes that structural features of the economy, including diversification and sectoral specialization, play a key role in ensuring shock resilience. The impact of other factors that have been examined in this study is contingent upon the nature of the crisis under consideration. In order to test the hypotheses, econometric analysis tools were utilized, with data from Rosstat and EMISS being employed.
The findings indicated that the sectoral composition exerts a substantial influence on economic resilience. The impact of specialization in the extractive industries is contingent upon the nature of the prevailing crisis, while the openness of the regional economy serves to augment its vulnerability to crisis. The relatively high proportion of agriculture and the public sector in the economy has a stabilizing effect on the state of regional economies. The findings of this study indicate that economic diversification does not demonstrate a statistically significant relationship with resilience. However, it is hypothesized that it can have a mitigating effect on economic dynamics during a crisis. While the findings of the analysis indicate the presence of factors most frequently associated with the magnitude of the downturn in regional economies, it was not possible to identify statistically significant universal factors of resilience.
The results obtained are applicable to the development of anti-crisis policies and regional development strategies. The conclusions emphasize the need to support diversification and innovation in order to enhance the adaptive resilience of regions, as well as the development of interregional ties and the institutional environment.
Meta-Analysis of the Relationship Between Unemployment and Self-Reported Health (2015-2024)
The purpose of this work is to assess the overall effect of the mutual influence of the “unemployed" status on self-assessed health by meta-analysis based on the analysis of foreign literature from 2015 to 2024. Meta-analysis is a universal quantitative method for combining data from individual articles and calculating the overall effect. For the first time in the Russian literature, it is used to analyze the relationship between the labor market and health.
Based on the formulated search strategy, a database search was conducted. Screening based on the title and abstract and using keywords reduced the sample to 124 articles, as a result, 12 publications and 35 models presented in them were selected for quantitative analysis. Regression with random effects estimated the overall effect of the relationship between the status of “unemployed" and self-assessed health at OR = 1.76; this indicator was statistically significant. To reduce the heterogeneity of the model, a subgroup analysis was used, which confirmed that unemployment has a more negative impact on men and on Western Europeans. The calculation of the meta-regression showed that financial difficulties and deprivation increase the negative relationship between health and status in the labor market, and controlling the model for the age of the respondent reduces the negative effect of job absence.
The study confirmed the existence of a possible publication bias, so the results of the work should be interpreted with caution. The obtained estimates will be used by the authors for comparison with the results for Russia, calculated using quasi-experimental approaches and based on models that account for the endogeneity between self-assessed health and labor market status. The comparison is a starting point for the formulation of employment strategies, taking into consideration the population health.
Life Expectancy of the Population ofthe Kemerovo Oblast - Kuzbass: Features and Reserves for Increase
In modern geopolitical, demographic, socio-economic conditions, reducing mortality and, accordingly, increasing life expectancy are the main factors for achieving the leading national development goal of the Russian Federation - saving the population. Currently, Russia ranks 101st out of 195 countries in life expectancy. Interregional differences in the indicator within the country are also significant. Thus, among all the subjects of the Russian Federation in 2022, the Kemerovo Oblast ranked only 71st in terms of life expectancy of the population of both sexes, 69th for men and 77th for women. Life expectancy in the Kemerovo Oblast - Kuzbass has been lower for a long time than in the Russian Federation, the Siberian Federal District as a whole and in its individual subjects - Krasnoyarsk Krai, Novosibirsk, Omsk and Tomsk Oblasts. The lag of the Kemerovo Oblast from the Russian Federation for 1990-2023 on average per year is 3.14 years for both sexes, 3.43 years for men, 2.60 years for women.
To successfully solve the set tasks of increasing life expectancy and reducing the differentiation of indicators, it is necessary to know what is the contribution of mortality by age and cause of death to the differences in life expectancy and the existing reserves for its increase. As a result of decomposition of the differences in life expectancy of the population of the Kemerovo Oblast and the compared territories, the following results were obtained: the greatest contribution is made by mortality from HIV infection, external causes, respiratory diseases, diseases associated with dangerous alcohol consumption in working age (especially at the age of30-44 years), as well as from diseases of the circulatory system at ages older than working age. The life expectancy reserves of the population of Kuzbass associated with the exclusion of the main classes of causes of death are 14.48 years for men and 9.98 years for women. Losses associated with infections (largely with HIV), external causes, diseases of the respiratory system, digestion, excessive alcohol consumption, are concentrated in the working age, with diseases of the circulatory system and neoplasms - in ages older than the working age.
The results of the study are recommended for use in the development of federal and regional socio-demographic programs, in planning the activities of individual healthcare services and institutions, and for the rational use of limited resources, including financial ones.
Migration Connectivity of Regions of Asian Russia: Theoretical Approaches and Description Parameters
The article presents the results of a study on the connectivity of regions of Asian Russia based on indicators of permanent migration of the population as a variety of interregional interactions. It is assumed that the presence of intensive migration exchanges between regions indicates the connectivity, as do their sustainability and stability over time.
The study utilizes statistical data on interregional migration of the population of the Siberian Federal District, the Far Eastern Federal District and Tyumen Oblast for 2015, 2019 and 2023. The study calculates the intensity (velocity) coefficient of interregional migration flows between all pairs of regions of Asian Russia. After that the pairs of regions with the most pronounced values of migration exchange indicators were selected, and then groups of connected regions classified by geography (geographical proximity, common borders) were identified. The intensity of migration exchanges within those groups is higher than with territories outside. These groups are the Western and Southern groups in Western Siberia, Yenisey and Baikal groups in Eastern Siberia, and a group of regions of the Far East.
The study shows general trends in the migration processes - a decrease in migration exchanges and the “Western drift" which means that the intensity of the westward migration flow is higher than the intensity of the eastward migration flow. It describes the interregional migratory connectivity according to the following parameters - intensity of migration exchanges, natural or institutional genesis of connectivity, symmetry or asymmetry of migration flows, forms of connectivity, sustainability of migratory connections.
To assess the sustainability of interregional migratory connections, firstly, the study compares the values of migration intensity (velocity) coefficients over several years, secondly, it uses the data from the 2020-2021 All-Russian Census of Population regarding which regions the natives of certain territories of Asian Russia live in.
Interstate Integration as a Factor Influencing Consumer Preferences in the Russian-Belarusian Borderland
Sociological research is an effective tool for studying economic processes. The article presents the results of a survey of residents of six regions of the Russian-Belarusian borderland, collected in order to assess the impact of interstate integration on consumer preferences. Changes in foreign trade rules within the framework of the implementation of agreements between Russia and Belarus may affect the assortment, quality and price characteristics of the consumer market. This hypothesis is tested in the study.
It was found that increasing the permeability of the border for goods and citizens provided an opportunity for Russians to purchase Belarusian food products within walking distance, i.e. close to home. This reduced the need to travel to the neighboring country. However, disproportions in prices and product ranges remain, which supports the past habits of citizens to travel to the neighboring country to make purchases. The devaluation of national currencies especially stimulates “food migration". Integration agreements made it possible to saturate the Belarusian consumer market with non-food products imported through the Russian Federation in transit.
The conducted survey characterizes the consumer market in the border area, which, according to respondents, has formed over the past 10 years. The answers to questions about changes in the range, quality and price of products of local manufacturers, as well as Russian and Belarusian manufacturers in general, are presented. The factors that are significant for respondents when making a purchase decision are identified, the most important of which is the quality of goods. The main points of sale and brands popular with residents of the Russian-Belarusian border area are determined. Young respondents are more interested in domestically produced goods, prefer shopping trips to the capital regions of their countries, and rarely visit neighboring regions of a friendly country. In general, the results of the study indicate that the consumer market of Russia and Belarus is heterogeneous even in border areas, despite the long process of interstate integration and the removal of most significant trade barriers.
The Role of Cooperative Stores in Improving the Quality of Life of the Population of the Kaliningrad Oblast
The development of cooperative stores is one of the alternatives to the socio-economic development of the exclave Kaliningrad Oblast and, as a result, one of the ways to improve the quality of life of its population. The purpose of the article was to analyze the role of cooperative stores, assess the prospects for their development in order to improve the quality of life of the population of the Kaliningrad Oblast. The hypothesis of the study is the following: residents of the Kaliningrad Oblast expect that the development of consumer cooperatives and the opening of cooperative stores in the region will improve the quality of life of the population. Based on a survey conducted by residents of the Kaliningrad Oblast (N = 481), an assessment is given of: the level of life satisfaction; the role of consumer cooperatives; the desires of residents of the region for cooperative stores to appear in their city or village; the expectations of residents of the Kaliningrad Oblast from the opening of cooperative stores in their city or village. The revealed values are compared with the average values for the Russian Federation as a whole. It was determined that residents of the Kaliningrad Oblast highly appreciate the role of consumer cooperatives in supporting a decent standard of living. The study concluded that the expectations of the region’s residents from the opening of cooperative stores are linked to the appearance of a high-quality product from a local manufacturer and the development of a city or village.
Demchenko M. V. mvdemchenko@fa.ru
State Regulation of Spatial Development in China (Using the Example of the North-Eastern and Western Macroregions)
In the politics and economics of Russia and China, the factor of space is being re-evaluated: instead of being a “burden " requiring enormous costs to overcome in vast territories, it is becoming a key strategic resource for these countries. This is not happening automatically, but as a result of targeted state policy (spatial, structural, investment, infrastructure). The aim of this article is to identify the characteristics of state regulation of spatial development in the PRC, as well as to assess the possibilities of using Chinese experience in Russia. This experience involves a real transition from economic and commercial goals to a focus on increasing social value, based on people and their environment. China’s modernisation is based on achieving scientific and technological leadership and the harmonious development of its provinces and autonomous regions, as well as reducing disparities in the development of cities and villages. This confirms the author’s earlier hypothesis that China, through its strategic goals and practical actions, is implementing the development model that Russia and its most important macro-region, Siberia, should adopt.
This article is the first part of a two-part series devoted to this issue. It explores the specifics of strategic planning in China and examines issues of state regulation in the country’s problematic macroregions - the Northeast and West. The second article, to be published in the next issue of the journal, will examine one of China’s model regions for spatial development (the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region) and formulate the “secrets to the success ” of China’s spatial development, against the backdrop of Russia’s untapped potential.
Biofuel Market in Russia: Current State and Prospects
With the growing relevance of environmental issues in the energy sector, the issue of switching to renewable energy sources is becoming increasingly acute. Therefore, the use of biofuels may be relevant in areas with a developed timber processing complex. Despite the fact that its share in the total fuel consumption in Russia is no more than 1%, in some regions this figure reaches 10%. Interest in biofuels is associated with its environmental friendliness, the need to utilize production waste and, in some cases, low cost. The article presents an overview of the biofuel market in Russia with its main trends and prospects for use, an analysis of the dynamics of biofuel production and consumption. A comparative assessment of the economic efficiency of fuel pellets and chips in low- and medium-capacity boiler houses is given. It is concluded that the use of fuel chips is only justified in the vicinity of timber processing plants, while the use of fuel pellets is only justified in certain areas, such as isolated or protected areas. A possible solution to the problems of the timber processing complex in Russia that have arisen under the influence of sanctions may be an increase in domestic demand for biofuels.
