Content №1 от 2020
The Eastern Vector of Russia’s Energy Strategy and Its Impact on the Energy Efficiency of the Economy of the Baikal Region
~~The energy efficiency of Russia’s economy and its eastern regions lags behind that of developed countries, and its growing is one of the overarching priorities set by the Russian state energy policy. The Baikal region has a special economic status as a world heritage site. The relevance of energy efficiency growing in the region is determined by the energy-intensive industry specialization of the economy and high environmental requirements to preserve the nature of Lake Baikal.
The study objective is to forecast the GPR energy intensity dynamics in the Baikal region taking into account the energy cooperation between Russia, China, and Mongolia, as well as to identify the most significant factors affecting the energy efficiency of the region’s economy. As a result, we have devised a new methodological approach to energy efficiency assessment based on a combination of economic and mathematical modeling, system analysis, statistical analysis, balance and indicative techniques. The research tool is a data processing system designed to generate regional fuel and energy balances (FEB), which includes the following: a system of models and databases to analyze and forecast alternative scenarios for the fuel and energy complex (FEC) development in regions, with regard to international cooperation; economic and mathematical models of FEB; methods for assessing the energy efficiency of regional economies; statistical methods to determine crucialfactors affecting energy efficiency; benchmarking methods to assess development potential.
The study identified the most significant factors in increasing the energy efficiency of the economy of the Baikal region, these are: stronger energy cooperation with neighboring countries; the rational use of fuel and energy in the economic sectors and among the population; the use of energy-saving technological processes and equipment to reduce the specific costs of fuel and energy resources (FER) in their production, transportation and consumption; reduced FER losses and consumption for the needs of energy enterprises. Statistical methods have been used to develop equations for multiple regression of the gross regional product energy intensity and gross energy consumption in the Baikal region. The equations make it possible to predict the dynamics of indicators for the future until 2035.
Saneev B. G. saneev@isem.sei.irk.ru
Sokolov A. D. sokolov@isem.sei.irk.ru
Forecasting a Long-Term Strategy for Socio-Economic Development
~~The article presents the results of practical application of interval methods under the uncertainty of a direct production costs matrix in the regional input-output model. It presents the complete technological chain for solving a linear tolerance problem with the Shary’s method, which uses the recognizing functional of a solution set, as exemplified by an interval input-output model for the Republic of Tyva. In the text, we obtain a long-term sectoral forecast of the socio-economic development in the Republic of Tyva till 2035 based on the regional interval input-output model.
Information and Communication Technology in Russia: Trends and Regional Development Determinants
Information and communication technologies (ICT) are changing the structure of the entire economy by creating new markets and production techniques. The development of the ICT industry is an overriding economic policy priority in many countries, including the Russian Federation. The article explores the state of ICT in Russia and its regions and assesses regional determinants that affect employment dynamics in this sector, from an empirical standpoint. Under the current situation in Russia, the ICT contribution to the economy (2.6% of added value and 1.6% of employees) is much less than that in highly developed countries. The industry is unevenly distributed in terms of space, and its dynamics across various regions also differ. The Russian ICT market is highly and increasingly concentrated. The three dominating regions are Moscow City, St. Petersburg City, and Moscow Oblast; these areas account for more than a third of the ICT employment and almost two-thirds of its costs.
Driven by theories on regional determinants affecting the development of high-tech companies, including the ones in ICT, we point out the significance of human capital, resources, infrastructure, institutions, demand, competition, and other factors that establish an innovation system to support technological and innovative development and base it on individual territories. This article estimates factors influencing the ICT growth at the level of individual Russian regions, quantified by the number of persons employed in the industry. We have considered such factors as region’s size, its economic development, peculiar economic structure, human potential, availability of financing, and state sub-sidies for ICT. Using a generalized method of moments with instrumental variables (the Arellano-Bond estimator), we conclude that the most significant factors positively affecting the number of ICT employees have been as follows: population size, the share of university students, GRP per capita, and the proportion of high-tech industry in manufacturing.
Ivanova A. I. anastasiya27111994@mail.ru
Integral Transport Accessibility of the Far North Districts in Krasnoyarsk Krai
The article summarizes the transport system of the Far North districts and lands in Krasnoyarsk Krai, highlighting types of transport crucial for the population and industry in this region. Using natural neighbor interpolation and fuzzy overlay in ESRI ArcGIS, we have estimated area distribution of the integral transport accessibility indicator for the territory under study. The resulting indicator combines physical (time) and economic (tariff) distance characteristics for cargo and passenger transportation by different types of transport. We explain the features of vehicle operation in each of the selected areas of transport accessibility. The obtained indicator provides ground for further research on the scale and distribution of transport costs necessary for growing industries and daily life in the far northern territories of Krasnoyarsk Krai.
Determinants of Migration Behavior of Youth and Impact of Migration for Altai Krai
At the present day, there is no strict, systematized, and comprehensive list of determinants for the migration behavior of young people, despite this topic being relevant for the Russian regions due to the high number of young people migrating across the country. The authors present their original view of migration behavior as a function with determinants, selected according to various migration theories and confirmed by migration studies carried out in Russia and abroad, which made it possible to identify the main trends and peculiarities of young people’s migration behavior in the current context. We analyze youth migration in the Siberian Federal District, Altai Krai specifically, and reveal possible consequences of significant migratory outflows of young people to neighboring regions. The conducted analysis is based on Rosstat data and research of both foreign and domestic scientists in the field of migration.
Analysis of Demanded Occupations: Regional Issues
The article analyzes regional differences in the occupational structure of employees. The source of data for the study is an online job database hosted on the Work in Russia website by the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Russian Federation. Using the database, the authors have compiled the Top 100 list of the most demanded occupations in Russia. An investigation of demanded occupations by occupational groups revealed that the highest number of vacant jobs in Russia is observed for qualified workers, while the number for professionals and associate professionals is substantially lower. A region-specific analysis of vacancies showed that in May 2019 the highest number of vacancies was offered by employers in Moscow, Primorsky Krai, Moscow Oblast, Amur Oblast, and Krasnoyarsk Krai. We uncover considerable regional differences in the occupational structure of vacancies. Region-specific causes for the differences are industrial structure, natural resource capacity, military importance, and building of major objects in the region.
The Empirical Analysis of Innovation System Imperfections
Innovation system failures and companies’ innovation performance have been discussed in a large body of literature. Few studies, however, consider the relation between these two indicators for the regions of different economic specialization. Previous research from abroad contributes to the classification of innovation system failures, it helps to identify system imperfections and understand their nature, but it is not sufficient to develop innovation policies. Regional differences in technological development and in the way of interaction between local actors determine the regional focus of our study. Regions with resource abundance and resource-poor territories differ in innovative performance, though their macroeconomic and institutional environment is similar.
We examine two hypotheses in our study. First, we consider if companies in resource-rich and resource-poor regions differ in their estimates of innovation system failures. Second, we examine if these estimates affect firms’ innovation activity. We used empirical data from the telephone survey of500 commercial institutions from resource-rich (53.8%) and resource-poor regions (46.2%).
We found out that firms in resource-abundant and resource-poor territories are very similar in how they estimate innovation system failures, which proves that the problem of underdeveloped market institutions in Russia is common for them both. Significant differences were identified in social capital, particularly in actors’ interactions to channel innovation. The second hypothesis was not confirmed: the entrepreneurs in the survey do not take into account innovation system failures and their decisions about innovations do not depend on the innovation environment.
The study results are applicable to national and regional innovation policies and can be also used for regions of different economic specialization.
Assessment of the State and Prospects for the Use of Forest Resources in the Komi Republic in Accordance with the Sustainable Development Criteria
As recorded by the State Forest Fund, the Komi Republic possesses the most forest resources in the European part of Russia, ranking first among other regions. However, while the official indicators exhibit positive dynamics, timber procuring business points out a decrease in the quality of forest resources regarding their commodity and species compositions, specific stock, properties of wood, and transport accessibility. This trend calls for a more objective assessment of the state and possibilities for improving the regional resource base so that it meets the current needs of forest management, including an assessment of compliance with sustainable development principles and criteria.
The subject of this study is the state of forest resources in the Komi Republic. The purpose of our research is to evaluate the state of forest resources and the prospects for their use against the sustainable development criteria in forest management, using the author’s methodology based on national and foreign best practices. The scientific novelty consists in creating a system of indicators adapted to the forestry biological and economic background in the Komi Republic. Such a system should rely on data aggregation, extrapolation, and geosystem analysis as the research methodology.
The study identifies the area of forests economically feasible for reforestation, as well as its possible economic effect. Taking into account the average annual stand growth per hectare and transport accessibility, we have divided the forest areas into groups and given each a description of the current state of forestry with prospects for the future. We provide recommendations for each group on forest management and use relevant to their natural and economic features.
The results of this study are applicable to shaping the Komi Republic’s forest policy, forecasting in greater detail, and modeling forest use scenarios for districts in the Komi Republic. It may also serve as a methodological basis for the ecological and economic assessment of other heavily forested Russian regions.
Institutional Environment for Social and Economic Development of Municipalities
The article discusses the current problems related to an emerging institutional environment for the social and economic development of municipalities. It shows that the socio-economic development of these units is accompanied by their high spatial differentiation. The economic policy and institutional mechanisms of its implementation fail to adequately consider regional peculiarities of the municipal economy and the unique role of the spatial factor in ensuring economic growth. To solve the problems described, we propose management mechanisms and tools providing an effective institutional environment and promoting the economic development of municipalities.
The article covers methodological issues of shaping a favorable institutional environment for the development of municipalities, design principles of a management system for the development of municipalities, and features of economic modernization in rural municipalities. We have studied promising development trends for municipalities and investment policy, such as agricultural clusters, road construction, the revival of cooperation, and market infrastructure expansion.
The article includes proposals on how to properly establish an institutional environment for the economic development of municipalities, aimed at improving the investment climate, modernizing the economy, raising living standards in municipalities, and improving the efficiency of regional and municipal management.
