Content №1 от 2020
The Eastern Vector of Russia’s Energy Strategy and Its Impact on the Energy Efficiency of the Economy of the Baikal Region
~~The energy efficiency of Russia’s economy and its eastern regions lags behind that of developed countries, and its growing is one of the overarching priorities set by the Russian state energy policy. The Baikal region has a special economic status as a world heritage site. The relevance of energy efficiency growing in the region is determined by the energy-intensive industry specialization of the economy and high environmental requirements to preserve the nature of Lake Baikal.
The study objective is to forecast the GPR energy intensity dynamics in the Baikal region taking into account the energy cooperation between Russia, China, and Mongolia, as well as to identify the most significant factors affecting the energy efficiency of the region’s economy. As a result, we have devised a new methodological approach to energy efficiency assessment based on a combination of economic and mathematical modeling, system analysis, statistical analysis, balance and indicative techniques. The research tool is a data processing system designed to generate regional fuel and energy balances (FEB), which includes the following: a system of models and databases to analyze and forecast alternative scenarios for the fuel and energy complex (FEC) development in regions, with regard to international cooperation; economic and mathematical models of FEB; methods for assessing the energy efficiency of regional economies; statistical methods to determine crucialfactors affecting energy efficiency; benchmarking methods to assess development potential.
The study identified the most significant factors in increasing the energy efficiency of the economy of the Baikal region, these are: stronger energy cooperation with neighboring countries; the rational use of fuel and energy in the economic sectors and among the population; the use of energy-saving technological processes and equipment to reduce the specific costs of fuel and energy resources (FER) in their production, transportation and consumption; reduced FER losses and consumption for the needs of energy enterprises. Statistical methods have been used to develop equations for multiple regression of the gross regional product energy intensity and gross energy consumption in the Baikal region. The equations make it possible to predict the dynamics of indicators for the future until 2035.
Saneev B. G. saneev@isem.sei.irk.ru
Sokolov A. D. sokolov@isem.sei.irk.ru
