Content №4 от 2024
Spatial Heterogeneity and Spatial Autocorrelation of Economic Activity Levels in Russian Regions
The article examines the unique characteristics of spatial spillover effects in the Russian economy and their connection to the level of economic activity and its variability across regions. The study employs methods based on Markov chain theory with discrete time and continuous state space to analyze the spatial dynamics of regional indicators. The findings reveal that not only a commonly low level of economic activity but also significant disparities in its levels between regions hinder the emergence of positive spatial externalities. Regions that lag considerably behind their neighbors do not experience accelerated growth; instead, they fall even further behind both their neighbors and the national average. Conversely, regions with smaller differences in economic activity levels and those with above-average economic activity are more likely to experience positive spatial spillover effects. This leads to a convergence in economic activity levels and results in positive spatial autocorrelation across regions. In such cases, regions catching up with their neighbors benefit from the greatest acceleration in development, while leading regions tend to slow down slightly. Thus, spatial autocorrelation, which reflects the degree of similarity among neighboring regions, can both result from and reinforce the processes of spatial concentration or dispersion of economic activity.
Tax Revenues in the Russian Federation: Sectoral and Regional Structural Shifts
In the current geopolitical climate, with heightened risks and threats related to foreign economic activity, the importance of understanding tax revenue sources, their regional distribution, and sectoral diversification has increased significantly. Along with economic development, the movement of revenues to the budget system is influenced by the level of the tax burden. This study aims to assess the evolution of tax revenues and identify the factors driving their dynamics and changes in sectoral and territorial structures, as administered by the Federal Tax Service.
The analysis reveals that from 2010 to 2022, the growth rate of Russia’s gross regional product (GRP), even when measured in current prices, steadily declined until 2020. Tax revenue trends closely mirrored this economic performance. A sharp decline in budget system resources was averted after 2018 due to a marked increase in the tax burden. Of all the growth in the budget system’s revenue, 10% was attributed to the increased tax burden, while GRP dynamics drove 90%.
Significant structural shifts that shape the scale and trajectory of the country’s budget revenues are concentrated in a relatively small group of regions. About a quarter of the regions with the highest share of total revenues account for around 80% of Federal Tax Service revenues (on average from 2010 to 2022). Sectors such as trade and certain manufacturing sub-sectors typically demonstrate a higher-than-average return on sales and relatively low tax burden assessments. These sectors, therefore, warrant closer scrutiny to explore opportunities for increasing tax revenue in both the short and medium term.
Uneven Development of the Russian Regions in Context of Infrastructure Financialization
This article addresses the insufficient scientific attention given to the impact of public and private infrastructure investments on reducing regional inequalities, especially within the BRICS countries, and particularly Russia. Despite the importance of this issue, it has been under-researched there, unlike in other countries such as China. To bridge this gap, the article evaluates how infrastructural financialization influences uneven regional development in Russia. Using a Tobit regression model and panel data from 2005 to 2019, the study analyzes regional development disparities, with infrastructural finanicate that advanced infrastructural financialization contributes to reducing regional inequality in Russia. Although Russia’s economy focuses on public administration, the article emphasizes the need for increased regionally proportional private investment in infrastructure to achieve regional convergence. Notably, the study’s conclusions differ from those of studies using similar methodology abroad, highlighting the controversial nature of the topic.
Siberian Peripheral District: Stability or Stagnation?
The article considers the structural and institutional factors that have determined the levels and dynamics of macroeconomic indicators in the Siberian Federal District (SFD) over the past 20 years. A trend of peripheralization is revealed, manifested in the fact that most of the district’s socio-economic indicators lag behind the national average. We highlight the reasons behind changes in the structure of economic activity and income, as recorded by official statistics, which have led to income concentration in capital regions. At the same time, non-capital regions show reduced formal participation in overall outcomes. The resulting gap between the actual distribution of productive forces and the macroeconomic indicators reflects an inter-regional redistribution of financial resources, contributing to strong disparities in living standards. The article also underscores the role of sectoral restructuring in the SFD’s lagging labor productivity. Lastly, the opportunities and limitations for economic growth in the district, in relation to labor and investment resources, are analyzed.
Assessing Regional Economic Specialization Using the TOPSIS Method
This article presents an assessment of the regional economic specialization, using the Republic of Bashkortostan and its manufacturing industry as a case study, analyzed in relation to public finance performance in this constituent entity of the Russian Federation. The TOPSIS method was employed as a tool to identify the most promising economic activities for financial support, aiming to enhance the performance of public finance utilization in the region. The study has found that in 2021-2022, amid the impacts of COVID-19 and sanctions on the regional economy, the significance of the public finance indicator (revenue collected per employee in the region) increased in the evaluation of economic specialization. What is more, despite a shift in the preferred area of support from the woodworking industry (2019-2020) to pharmaceutical production (2021-2022), the core of the region’s economic specialization remained virtually unchanged. Priority industries for continued financial support include chemical production, vehicle manufacturing, paper production, electrical equipment manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products. Supporting these sectors is expected to maximize the performance of public finance use in the Republic of Bashkortostan’s manufacturing industry.
Assessing the Contributions of Companies by Age and Size to Regional Market Development
This article, building on theories that explore the causes and factors of company growth, focuses on identifying growing companies as a key element in developing high-tech businesses. It presents a methodology for categorizing companies that influence regional market dynamics, where the regional market is defined as the set of companies within a specific region. The categorization is based on company size (four levels) and age (four levels), grouping companies from each region into 16 distinct size and age categories. This methodology is tested against high-tech business development in Russia’s eastern regions. Despite regional variations in the revenue structure of high-tech businesses, large mature companies are found to dominate across all regions. Analyzing the contribution of different size and age groups to overall regional revenue growth reveals the groups driving growth in each region. Targeted state support for these key groups could have a more significant impact on regional economic development. The proposed methodology can also be applied to assess growth dynamics in other industries and regions.
Embedded Sector of the Economy in Siberian Regions
This study explores internal resources for territorial development based on human capital by identifying a sector of the regional economy associated with the economic activities of the local population. We use the concept of “embeddedness" of economic actions within the regional community to describe this sector. The share of income derived from entrepreneurship and property among the local population is proposed as a criterion for measuring economic embeddedness, reflecting the extent to which the regional community participates in market relations as an economic actor. The analysis highlights spatial differences in the degree of economic embeddedness, notably in Siberian resource regions where external corporations dominate the economy through raw material extraction and primary processing. The development of the embedded sector, especially in areas related to intellectual activity, plays a part in retaining the most active and educated members of the population in eastern regions. The findings can be applied to regional socio-economic planning, advocating a shift from reliance on natural resources to prioritizing human potential by fostering the growth of the embedded economy.
Manufacturing Industry in Eastern Russia Amid Economic Shocks
This study aims to examine the peculiarities of the manufacturing industry’s development in the eastern regions of Russia. Can the “eastern vector" of regional development be considered a noteworthy factor in this dynamic? We investigate several aspects of economic processes in the eastern regions during the economic shocks of 2020-2021 and 2022-2023, including the dynamics of production, labor productivity in manufacturing, and tax revenues from manufacturing industries. The calculations are based on the production index.
In terms of production volumes, industrialization in the east of the Russian Federation generally outpaced the national average from 2017 to 2023, with the exception of2022, though results varied significantly by region. Labor productivity in all Far Eastern regions was higher in 2022 than in 2017. However, according to the foreign economic activity (FEA) data for “Manufacturing Industries" in the Russian East, this indicator was below the national average in 2022, and in four regions, it declined compared to 2017. Given the current limited availability of labor resources, this poses risks to the continued growth of the manufacturing sector in the eastern regions.
An analysis of Federal Tax Service data revealed a substantial increase in tax revenues from the manufacturing industry both nationally and in the eastern regions in 2023. While this trend is positive for overall budget revenues, it also suggests a growing tax burden on the industry, which could negatively affect its development and modernization in the medium term.
The findings support expanding the argument for a “pivot to the east." Rather than focusing solely on increasing exports, the priority should be on fostering horizontal economic relationships and cooperation between regions in Russia’s Asian part to improve the efficiency of regional economic systems. That is to say, a “pivot to the east" should first and foremost be a “pivot to the East of Russia".
Glazyrina I. P. iglazyrina@bk.ru
Socio-Economic Determinants of Urban Community Consolidation in the Border Central Black Earth Regions of Russia
This article examines the social determinants of urban community consolidation. Its goal is to test hypotheses regarding the relationship between long-term socio-economic and socio-demographic trends in urban communities within Russia’s border regions and the population’s perception of social consolidation. By comparing statistical data and sociological research findings, the authors demonstrate that attitudes toward consolidation are not necessarily tied to favorable demographic indicators. Migration has a mixed impact on the prevalence of consolidation in the public consciousness (when cultural distance is significant, consolidation tendencies strengthen among natives as a protective response, whereas smaller cultural distances do not encourage solidarization). The study finds that the “upper" and “lower" strata of the urban population are most inclined toward consolidation, while the “middle" class remains relatively passive. Paradoxically, the erosion of the middle class fosters stronger consolidation attitudes. Additionally, the population’s awareness of the presence of consolidation infrastructure in their city (such as NGOs and public associations) and participation in these organizations contribute to the development and spread of consolidation efforts.
Babintsev V. P. babintsev@bsu.edu.ru
Purchasing Power of Workers by Sectors in Russian Regions
This paper aims to analyze the purchasing power coefficient of Russia’s working population, focusing on regional differences, sectors of economic activity, and decile groups. The study specifically examines workers with a relatively acceptable level of earnings-those not living in poverty but also not considered wealthy. This approach is uncommon and underexplored, but it offers valuable insights into the welfare of Russian workers, potentially benefiting both researchers and regional authorities.
The article introduces the concepts of minimum necessary and acceptable wage levels and examines the distribution of workers across decile groups based on purchasing power. It covers 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation and 18 sectors of economic activity, classified according to OKVED 2, over the period from 2017 to 2022. The analysis reveals that workers’ ability to achieve minimum necessary and acceptable wage levels varies by employment sector. Over time, the disparity in meeting minimum wage levels decreases across most regions, while the gap in achieving acceptable wage levels widens. The study identifies the most and least favorable sectors for achieving acceptable earnings and draws conclusions on regions with pronounced sectoral specializations.
Socio-Economic Determinants of Urban Community Consolidation in the Border Central Black Earth Regions of Russia
The greatest opportunity to enhance quality of life lies in maximizing the potential of rural areas for recreational use and as new residential locations. This research identifies the main motives and factors influencing tourists and new rural residents when selecting places to relax or live. Nature, the absence of city noise, rural heritage and culture, and the availability of locally sourced, healthy foods were found to be the primary factors of small rural areas’ attractiveness. The study also highlights that further development of local gastronomy would enhance these areas’ appeal. Respondents believe that increasing tourist flow to rural regions-which they predict will rise annually-will contribute to the socio-economic development of the countryside.
The study was conducted using empirical methods, including sociological surveys and semi-structured interviews during the 11th expedition of the Association of the Most Beautiful Villages and Towns of Russia, Reviving the Love for Rural Russia. The expedition took place in the Russian North from October 2 to 13, 2023, with support from the student expedition competition “Rediscovering Russia" (www.openrussia.rsv.ru) and the Vologda Oblast administration.
Merzlov A. V. a.merzlov@gmail.com
Vorontsova N. V. leonova.n@gmail.com
Features of Institutional Mechanisms in the Innovative Development of Russian Regions
This paper investigates the structure and specific features of the underexplored synergies in institutional interactions within the triple helix model, which reflects the development of Russia’s innovative economy. The evidence is based on regional statistics from the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Multidimensional classification methods, statistical hypothesis testing, and the analysis of relationships in complex institutional systems are employed. The study reveals significant regional disparities in the formation of an innovative economy.
The classic triple helix model is implemented in less than 30% of Russia’s regions. In most of them, the innovation sector is either dominated by industrial enterprises that interact poorly with the scientific and educational sectors, or the scientific sector is insufficiently focused on applied outcomes. The lack of institutional intermediaries hampers the model’s full potential. The article highlights the presence of both established and emerging institutional spheres in Russia’s innovation economy. The practical implementation of the triple helix model depends on so-called “windows of opportunity, " determined by regional factors and federal institutional policies. The study’s findings are recommended for use in shaping regional innovation and cluster policies, as well as in strategic planning for interregional innovation cooperation.
Current Aspects of Economic Transformation in the Russian-Belarusian Border Region under Interstate Integration
The article presents the results of a study examining key economic aspects of the Russian-Belarusian border regions: foreign trade, competition, and the labor market. The research explores the hypothesis that both positive and negative effects have emerged in the region’s economy due to the formation of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. Using statistical and sociological methods, the study underscores changes in foreign trade among economic entities in these border regions. Surveys of entrepreneurs reveal that inter-industry trade in the borderlands prevails over intra-industry trade, with key groups of traded goods highlighted. Interstate integration has also affected the level of competition, driving business transformation and prompting the search for new niches in various economic sectors. Additionally, the article presents statistical and sociological data confirming a labor shortage in the border regions. The findings can assist regional authorities in adjusting internal development strategies and roadmaps related to the Union State’s construction. We propose to draft a supranational strategy for the socio-economic development of the Russian-Belarusian border regions, aimed at capitalizing on the positive effects and mitigating the negative consequences of interstate integration.
