Content №4 от 2022
Financial and Insurance Activities As a Prospective Economic Specialization for a Constituent Entity of the Russian Federation
The Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2025 provides Russian regions with the choice of prospective economic specializations, which are often summarized in the concept of “smart specialization." One of such prospective specializations is financial and insurance activities. An analysis of existing approaches to defining regional specialization has revealed the possibility of including financial and insurance activities as specializations of Russia’s individual constituent entities. Detailed statistical material on prospective economic specializations, including financial services and insurance, is defined in the Atlas of Economic Specialization of Regions.
The object of observation is the Siberian Federal District and its five constituent entities (Altai Republic, Altai Krai, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Kemerovo Oblast, Novosibirsk Oblast), which have chosen financial services and/or insurance as their branches of specialization. We propose a methodology for ranking the capabilities of financial market participants in these constituent entities of the Rassian Federation. Based on the developed methodology, the city of Novosibirsk has been considered a potential capital of the regional financial market of Siberia. Using the main elements characterizing institutional and instrumental approaches to the formation of the financial market, we suggest the ways of creating a regional financial center in Novosibirsk.
The Knowledge Economy and Digitalization: Assessing Their Impact on Economic Growth of Russian Regions
The digitalization of organizations, households, and management is accelerated by information and communication technology (ICT), which leads to the economic growth of countries and regions in the knowledge economy. Russia is inferior to developed countries in investing in the knowledge economy sectors and in how much these sectors contribute to GDP. Although ICT has a decisive role in the digitalization of regions, digital heterogeneity and fragmented knowledge economy at the mesolevel hold back the growth.
This paper aims to assess how regional economic growth is impacted by expenditures for developing the knowledge economy, including the ICT sector, and the digitalization indices of households and organizations. We propose and test an econometric model of endogenous growth using data from Rosstat and the Higher School of Economics. Digitalization indices of households and organizations in 80 regions have been generated for 2017. The top five regions in terms of the highest household digitalization index are as follows: Moscow Oblast, the Republic of Tatarstan, Tyumen Oblast, Moscow, and St. Petersburg. The same ranking for the organization digitalization index would be Moscow, St. Petersburg, Leningrad Oblast, Stavropol Krai, and Tambov Oblast. Many Asian Russian and Transcaucasian regions lag significantly behind.
We confirm a hypothesis that spending on ICT leads to an increase in GRP per capita by 1 p.p. and is complementary to the higher education spillover. Digitalization indices have positive but statistically insignificant regression coefficients. Expenditures in other knowledge economy sectors, such as science, higher education, and healthcare, which form human capital, were not able to affect regions’ economic growth meaningfully in 2017, possibly due to their “underfundedness" (compared to developed countries). The article concludes that there is a need for systematic actions in managing all knowledge economy sectors, knowledge spillovers, domestic science and ICT breakthroughs to ensure the economy of Russian regions grows under digitalization. Our findings may be useful for managing the knowledge economy in digitally transforming Russian regions.
Assessing Self-Sufficiency in Basic Foodstuffs for Municipalities of Kaliningrad Oblast
Kaliningrad Oblast is an exclave region of the Russian Federation, which means its vulnerability in political and economic terms, as well as in self-sufficiency in basic foodstuffs. Low investment attractiveness of the farming industry, staff shortage and many other issues jeopardize food self-sufficiency in the region.
The aim of our study is to assess the current state of food self-sufficiency for Kaliningrad Oblast at the municipal level and to identify bottlenecks hindering its achievement. The indicator of self-sufficiency in basic foodstuffs is taken as the most representative one. The author has proposed an adapted method for calculating municipality self-sufficiency. We use calculated indicators of the required production volumes in accordance with rational consumption standards. This made it possible to obtain an objective assessment of how the municipal formations in Kaliningrad Oblast can provide their residents with basic types of products.
The results obtained have showed that the region as a whole has a rather low level of self-sufficiency in the primary agricultural produce. At the same time, several districts have not achieved self-sufficiency in any of the foodstuffs under consideration. However, we believe that many municipalities have the capacity to increase agricultural production, as evidenced by the growth of self-sufficiency indicators over the studied period. The decision-makers regarding the development of agricultural production and food industry in Kaliningrad Oblast should strengthen the support for agricultural producers in promising municipalities.
Modeling the Impact of Social Infrastructure on Fertility in Russian Regions
The problem of demographic development in Russia and its regions has been a pressing one for many years and is likely to remain such for the foreseeable future. Moreover, a set of heterogeneous factors leads to a worsening of the situation in the field of fertility. The hypothesis of this study is that the level of development of social infrastructure largely determines the dynamics of the fertility indicator.
The aim of the research is to analyze the changes in the level of fertility in the regions of Russia and to form a forecast for the medium term. The article reviews relevant scientific works, analyzes the level of fertility and changes in domestic reproductive behavior, groups and ranks the regions, develops an econometric model to describe the impact exerted by the level of social infrastructure development on fertility, and forms a scenario forecast for the fertility situation in the Russian regions. It is shown that the decline in the birth rate is due to a range of reasons, many of which can be adjusted to a very limited extent. The forecast of the situation development according to different scenarios assumes that the relatively low birth rate will remain until 2024 even in the most favorable conditions. Combined with other factors, this increases the threats to the sustainable demographic development of the country overall.
The proposed toolkit can help make evidence-based decisions in public administration practices when implementing regulatory measures in social and demographic policy.
The Impact of Schoolchildren’s Educational Choices on the Quality of the Human Capital in the Region
One of the reasons for the outflow and decline in the quality of human capital in Russian regions is educational migration, which is influenced by many factors, including the geography around schoolchildren’s educational choices (which university and where it is located) and further non-return of university graduates to their place of origin. The article considers the spatial features of schoolchildren’s educational choices in the region, using the Republic of Bashkortostan for a case study. It identifies how much highly qualified personnel leave the republic by comparing the attractiveness coefficients of Russian universities with the share of highly qualified personnel in the in- and out-migration. Spatial aspects of educational choices are analyzed through a questionnaire-based sociological survey of schoolchildren attending 10th and 11th grades in urban and municipal districts of the Republic of Bashkortostan as regards their selection of a place of study. We investigate the results of such a choice depending on the student’s place of residence, class profile, and family wealth. The territorial distribution of schoolchildren’s preferences by municipal and urban districts is studied in relation to the ratings of universities in neighboring regions and their geographical proximity.
Atnabaeva A. R, alsouy@mail.ru
Admission Tracks to Master’s Programs (Case of Southern Federal University)
Garmonova A. V. agarmonova@hse.ru
Shcheglova D. V. dshcheglova@hse.ru
Strategy Decay: Definition and Evaluation Methods
The article is dedicated to studying the phenomenon of decay (loss of relevance) of strategic documents at the regional and municipal levels in Russia. By analyzing major news sources, we show that Russian strategic planning documents are static, “sluggish," and unable to respond to rapid changes in the social, economic, political, and cultural environment (as in the case of the coronaviruspandemic). This leads to their rapid semantic degradation, the loss of their connection with current socio-economic challenges. It has been revealed that the duration of decay time differs among regions and municipalities, as well as among individual cities and regions, depending on local conditions. According to our estimates, a regional strategy decays and fully dies out within two to three years, while the same period is one to one and a half years for a municipal one, which is, in fact, equal to the time these strategies are drafted.
Akimova V, V. varvaraakimova1576@gmail.com
Prospects for Interregional Trade Relations Between Belarus, Russia, and China in the Context of Regional Integration
The article presents an analysis of the state and trends in the development of interregional relations of the Republic of Belarus with the regions of the Russian Federation and China. It elaborates proposals on how to form an institutional framework for deepening interregional interactions within the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which includes establishing legal support institutions, expanding the powers of the Union State of Belarus and Russia’s governing bodies, local self-government, coordination, and developing integration environment. The article highlights the main provisions of the draft Strategy for the Development of Interregional Cooperation Between Belarus and the People's Republic of China that contains recommendations for increasing the positions of non-potash commodity exports, taking into account such factors as the demand, price competitiveness of Belarusian products, expanding the export positions of high-tech products and goods of regional specialization, partnering with SMEs, cluster structures, etc. The format of regional associations has been defined as a practically untapped reserve for the growth of interregional relations between Belarus, Russia, and China. The main drivers that build up the capacity for interregional cooperation in the context of regional integration are considered to be as follows: creating an information and analytical database on the status of and current changes in the foreign economic strategies of the regions of China and the EAEU countries; using the potential of the digital logistics corridors project in the EAEU; establishing trade and marketing alliances; working out a joint action plan to include megalopolises and agglomerations, innovation zones, industrial parks, and border areas in interregional interactions.
The Concept of Transforming the Social and Economic System in Kuzbass Under the Decarbonization Policy
For decades, transforming the economy of Kuzbass (Kemerovo Oblast) has been presented in the region’s strategic planning documents as the most important method to ensure accelerated economic growth. The authors of this article prove that, unfortunately, there have been virtually no qualitative changes in the Kuzbass economy over the past twenty years and give reasons why this has occurred.
Kuzbass is currently facing the difficult task of choosing a long-term development model. On the one hand, despite the existing internal challenges and risks, the government is targeting businesses and society at accelerated growth, relying primarily on opportunities to increase coal production and advance SMEs. On the other hand, a critical mass of subjective and objective circumstances is gradually accumulating in Kuzbass, which in the medium term may radically change the situation, and the transformation of its economy will be the only possible model of economic growth. The main problem is the prospect of coal being displaced from the global economy under the pressure of decarbonization trend.
Russia lacks a generally recognized systematic approach to the structural reorganization of coal-producing regions under the decarbonization policy. Having studied some relevant practices abroad, we offer an original concept of transforming the Kuzbass economy on the principles ofjust transition, used by the European Union. The prerequisite for its successful implementation must be a dialogue between the authorities, businesses, and society in elaborating and coordinating the corridors of the region’s future development.
Fridman Yu. A. yurifridman@mail.ru
Single-Industry Towns in Siberia and the Far East: a New Approach to Public Policy Making
This article calculates the true savings of single-industry towns in Siberia and the Far East between 2011 and 2018. We propose a new classification of single-industry towns based on their results, considering sectoral specialization and true savings levels. Our viewpoint is that to make effective management decisions with regard to each single-industry town, it is necessary to organize field monitoring and investigation. The article suggests a possible structure of the field team report. The author’s proposals on differentiated lines of state policy for each group of single-industry towns, which take into account the level of true savings in a single-industry town, sectoral specifics, distance to a major city, and strategic importance for the Russian Federation, have become the result of this research cycle.
Studies of the Siberian Scientific School of Regional and Municipal Management (Dedicated to the 100th Birthday of R.I. Shniper)
The article considers certain guidelines for establishing a Siberian scientific school of regional and municipal government, including research on the issues of regional reproduction, regional economic independence, regional preplanning, a program-target approach to managing the regional economy, comprehensive regional planning, the study of regional competitiveness, patterns of interaction mechanism between economic entities in the territory, and the objective conditions and principles of social and economic management in a region.
By analyzing and summarizing the institutional aspects involved in the activities of state and municipal governments, schemes and procedures of regional planning and forecasting, the paper has identified the features of modern management structure and proposed directions to form an integral system of regional and municipal development management, as well as core elements of the state and municipal management mechanism under the new terms of Russia’s socio-economic development. We review the basic provisions contained in the concept of regional and municipal government under present-day conditions, including consideration of economic interests and contradictions in the development of regional economy, interactions between state and market structures, working out an institutional system to manage regional development, evaluation of the effectiveness of regional economic management, establishing a socio-economic environment to ensure the competitiveness of the urban and regional economies through increased investment attractiveness and effective use of budgetary funds, which will create prerequisites for the transition to a management model enables the substantial economic independence of municipalities and enhances their role in the economic strategy of regional development.
