Content №4 от 2022
Modeling the Impact of Social Infrastructure on Fertility in Russian Regions
The problem of demographic development in Russia and its regions has been a pressing one for many years and is likely to remain such for the foreseeable future. Moreover, a set of heterogeneous factors leads to a worsening of the situation in the field of fertility. The hypothesis of this study is that the level of development of social infrastructure largely determines the dynamics of the fertility indicator.
The aim of the research is to analyze the changes in the level of fertility in the regions of Russia and to form a forecast for the medium term. The article reviews relevant scientific works, analyzes the level of fertility and changes in domestic reproductive behavior, groups and ranks the regions, develops an econometric model to describe the impact exerted by the level of social infrastructure development on fertility, and forms a scenario forecast for the fertility situation in the Russian regions. It is shown that the decline in the birth rate is due to a range of reasons, many of which can be adjusted to a very limited extent. The forecast of the situation development according to different scenarios assumes that the relatively low birth rate will remain until 2024 even in the most favorable conditions. Combined with other factors, this increases the threats to the sustainable demographic development of the country overall.
The proposed toolkit can help make evidence-based decisions in public administration practices when implementing regulatory measures in social and demographic policy.
