Content №3 от 2020
Regional specification for macroeconomic targets in Russia’s development forecast
The article discusses an approach to setting up the problem of how to coordinate national and regional decisions in federative economies with competences and resources distributed between levels. The author has suggested and experimentally tested a methodology of spreading summary indicators of the country’s social and economic development to the regional level. Through the lens of examining 32 Russian macro-regions, we obtain regional estimates for the key parameters in the forecast made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation until 2024, i.e. labor productivity and investment share in GDP. Similar estimates are produced for the constituent entities in the Siberian Federal District.
The proposed methodology relies on a particular solution to the general problem of lossless data compression and can be further elaborated in multiple areas of focus: extension of consolidated sectoral solutions, estimates for the impact of aggregate resource conditions on the structure of a detailed regional development scenario, alternative formulations of problems of how to optimize sectoral proportions in the development of the national economy and regions, etc.
Social dynamics in the Far East: the defect of ideas or the failure of institutions?
The utmost priority for the Russian Far Eastern development and state policy in the region is to reduce population outflow and ensure the growth of human capital, which includes providing beneficial living conditions and high quality of life to its residents. Yet, despite newly established additional institutional incentives, specialfederal programs adopted, and two regions that joined the Far Eastern Federal District in 2018, the factors of social and demographic dynamics in the macro-region are still below the expected. An analysis of population movement indicators, household income and expenditure, quality of life in the FEFD regions (for all its eleven constituent entities, too) shows trends and results achieved in applying “indirect institutional incentives". We conclude that, after 30 years of reforms to improve living standards and raise the quality of life nation-wide while in particular creating comfortable living conditions in the Far East, the obstacles to these processes remain in place. Consequently, failed efforts to stabilize Far Eastern demographic potential and develop a social system are mainly because public policies in this area incorrectly focus on “institutional regulation"; that is, the failure lies in a collapsed institutional paradigm for achieving the programmed goal.
Regional coopera¬tion between science, higher education and business: the Science national project
The Science national project considers cooperation in research, develop¬ment, and production as one of the tools to enhance the prestige and improve the performance of science and higher education. This is the most important condition for Russia to be among the top five most powerful nations in the world. Analyzing theoretical concepts, foreign and domestic experience in creating integration structures within regional innovation systems, we find a great variety of models for cooperation between science, education, and business. The fact that the Science national project envisages setting up world-class research and educational centers (RECs) underlines the importance of their natural coexistence with other forms of scientific cooperation that have recently emerged in the Russian Academy of Sciences, elite universities, competence centers of the National Technological Initiative, etc.
This study aims to identify the prerequisites and mechanisms for establishing world-class RECs in Russian regions based on their effective functioning as agents of Russia’s regional innovation systems. The article examines the concepts of creating integration structures that involve research institutions, universities, and enterprises. We find out the prerequisites for foreign and domestic triad centers (science-education-innovation), which cooperate in science, development, and production successfully in regions. Then we compare local pilot initiatives from five constituent territories of the Russian Federation (Belgorod, Kemerovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Tyumen Oblasts, and Perm Krai) that have provided programs for their RECs. Conclusions drawn from the study are as follows: The Science national project will make it possible to combine the already established cooperation forms of research and educational institutions in flagship regions with pilot regional RECs to avoid science and education assets being over-concentrated in Moscow. Regional innovation systems are open to smart specialization, lateral scientific, and interregional sci-tech cooperation, which requires granting regions full powers to improve their local scientific and higher education institutions.
Estimating regional asymmetry of digital economic development in the Northwestern Federal District of the Russian Federation
The article presents the results of an author-designed assessment of regional asymmetry in digital economic development across the Northwestern Fede¬ral District in 2018. When calculating the index, unlike it is represented in most studies, we have considered not only business digitalization indicators but also the ones of society digitalization. The study shows that in 2018, the district was characterized by high asymmetry in digital economic development, with vastly different digitalization figures for the population and companies. Arkhangelsk Oblast exhibits the lowest comparative level among the NWFD regions, whe¬reas the highest results (albeit not for all indicators) belong to St. Petersburg, as expected. The one indicator in terms of which St. Petersburg does not have the lead is the percentage of online shoppers: this number is the biggest in Murmansk Oblast.
Social risks of Siberian development
Russia’s might will grow with Siberia...
M.V. Lomonosov
The article examines the social aspects of regional development, identifies its social threats: poverty, an archaic social framework with a large share of extremely poor households, small middle class, and a minuscule percentage of the rich against highly concentrated wages. We notice significant disparities in economic stratification among regions. In most entities of the Siberian Federal District, living standards are going down, and real household incomes have decreased. It is concluded that the past eighteen years have seen no substantial positive changes in the structure of the technological paradigm of the Russian economy. Economic modernization is the main reserve for improving Siberians’ living standards and quality of life.
Multidimensional poverty assessment based on sociological survey of rural population in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia)
In this article, the authors are the first to test methods of multidimensional poverty assessment in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) based on a representative sociological survey of the rural population. The methods include social exclusion index and assessment of material deprivations. The SEI methodology used by Rosstat has been adapted to the conditions of the northern region in question. Based on an expert survey and an analysis of Arctic Social Indicators being under development since 2006, we select 10 replacement variables that reflect particular living habits of the studied social group. The results are then compared with the data of Rosstat’s federal sample observations available for the rural population in Yakutia.
Among key factors of social exclusion and material deprivation of the rural population are the following: severely worn infrastructure, hardly accessible and low-quality social services, underdeveloped public amenities in residential housing, transport and digital isolation. An assessment of the respondents’ total income confirms that rural households heavily depend on employment in social welfare institutions, public assistance, and pensions, as well as on private subsidiary farms and traditional economic activities (hunting, fishing, and gathering). It is proved that the use of non-monetary methods, despite some methodological imperfections, allows allocating poverty risks under various socio-economic and demographic groups. The share of rural households with substandard income is 55%, which is 2.7 times higher than the average in Yakutia. This is confirmed by subjective (50.3% of respondents) and relative (62%) poverty lines. In addition to updating the existing list of indicators, improved non-monetary poverty assessment methodology in Russia should also incorporate regional aspects.
Gavril’eva T. N. tuyara@list.ru
Features of population distribution in Russia and Finland: impact of geographical factors and universities
The article considers the population dynamics in the regions of Russia and sub-regions of Finland. The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of geographical factors on the population dynamics and to identify opportunities for improvement with more advanced higher education and science by examining the two countries in contrast. We carry out a comparative analysis of data and point out the influence of the identified factors through regression analysis. Before market reforms, the farther a region was from Moscow, the faster its population grew. In the last 30 years, this trend was largely persistent for European regions; the situation in the Asian part of the country has changed for the opposite. A new correlation is found for European regions: the farther north a region is, the faster its population decreases. The same dependency manifested in Finland after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the subsequent economic crisis: population dynamics in sub-regions deteriorates with increasing distance from Helsinki. Yet, if a sub-region has universities, it does not experience migration outflows to the capital. Almost all sub-regions without universities or their affiliates are losing population, while the ones where classical universities are located are gaining new residents. In Russia, universities have little effect on population changes. An increase in the number of students does not lead to an increase in the overall population. Russian regions, especially those on the periphery, do not deter young people from migration, lose both accumulated human capital and possibilities of future economic growth.
Russia’s new demographic crisis and its rural-urban projection (case study of the Republic of Tatarstan)
The article analyzes the birth and death rates in the Republic of Tatarstan over the recent years from the standpoint of their impact on the region’s rate of natural increase. It also evaluates the reasons behind the period of local demographic prosperity in 2010-2016. The author’s calculations and arguments show that it is impossible to speak about a direct impact of pronatalist policies on these events. The most significant effect seems to be a temporary positive impact of market changes in the age-gender population pyramid. We propose major action areas in the socio-economic policy for reducing mortality, from the standpoint of identifying diseases that lead to the most fatalities among the working-age population (circulatory system diseases and deaths due to external causes). The article predicts a new stage of natural population decline in the region as the small generation born in the 1990s will be entering their most fertile age. In rural areas, the crisis will further worsen and become more complicated with several positional factors and the mechanical “hollowing-out” due to the outflow of young people.
Evaluating the impact of cluster development on the region’s economy
According to most studies, companies and regions benefit from clustering, which is instrumental in making the cluster concept widely accepted. Still, there is a severe and tangible gap between theory where clusters play an important economic role and practical ability to develop initiatives that would help clustered businesses become more competitive and stimulate their growth. This article aims to show through the case study of a region that it is essential not only to establish a foothold in advanced technologies and industries but also to understand whether cluster dynamics are viable in this region’s economy.
We show that the existing methods of assessing cluster projects do not fully reflect the positive impact of cluster synergies: not all participants in a cluster can assess their performance within the group; the effectiveness of extra-cluster interactions is not evaluated at all; the nonlinear nature of the effects, as well as the time lag and uncertainty of external factors, are not taken into account. We have quantified the impact of innovation clusters on regional economic development based on the case of Altai Krai in 2017. The research focuses on the economic performance dynamics of AltaiBio as the oldest cluster in Altai Krai. Since 2015, it reveals a growing share of unprofitable enterprises in the cluster and a steadily declining share of profitable ones. At the same time, profits at some large and medium-sized enterprises are dropping quite sharply, which significantly affects such a financial indicator of the cluster as net profit. The cluster then loses its primary source of funding for joint projects. It explains why government support is critical, especially when clusters are first being formed.
Buruk A. F. anjuta-5@yandex.ru
Impact of the new escrow account-based model of financing home construction on the primary real estate market
The article aims to identify how a newly introduced financing model based on escrow accounts will impact the expenditures of residential housing developers and purchasers. The research includes an interview with a representative of a bank engaged in construction lending. This interview helped identify a typical cost structure for building projects and housing price characteristics.
We evaluate cost changes by using the method of sensibility analysis to examine changes in prime costs, sales margin, and increases in housing prices.
The research demonstrates that the cost of construction and real estate prices will grow no more than 10% on average. The profitability of construction companies will also decline by no more than 10%. We see no foreseeable decrease in the discount to finished residential property purchased at an early stage.
It can be argued that the purpose of the new funding model was not to make homes more affordable but to reduce social risks associated with developers’ inability to carry out construction obligations with minimal cost to the state. Banks are the main beneficiaries of the new financing scheme.
Petrochemical industry in the Russian East - driving the economy or dragging it down?
The article deals with the challenges of petrochemical development in eastern Russia. It considers the most prominent peculiarities of the domestic petrochemical industry at the present moment and some crucial possible paths for its further improvement, taking into account the alternatives that domestic and foreign markets have to offer. We analyze both sectoral and regional aspects of new projects compared to recent international approaches to integrating petrochemistry in the social and economic development of territories. The article gives an economic assessment of a typical (model) polymer project in the Far East, showing its insufficient efficiency due to high costs. As one of the related fundamental problems, we outline the technological backwardness of the Russian petrochemical industry and some ways to overcome it through import substitution plus effective cooperation with foreign partners, which includes creating industrial petrochemical clusters in the eastern regions of the country.
The authors conclude that it is necessary to strengthen the state’s coordinating role when it comes to expensive petrochemical projects in the Russian East. Such a policy aims to rationalize costs, boost the economic efficiency of projects, and expand the opportunities for interregional and interindustry cooperation.
On the development of ecotourism in Russia
The article analyzes ecological tourism as one of the most effective and environmentally friendly commercialization methods of goods and services provided by unique eco-systems. It demonstrates that nature reserves and national parks may promote economic development and employment growth on their territories by attracting tourists and providing incentives for the development of relevant infrastructure, notwithstanding natural resources use constraints following their legal status. We explore long-run problems of competitiveness of the tourism industry in ecologically vulnerable areas. It is concluded that sustainable development of tourism is impossible without proper accounting for the ecological capacity of an area, moderate use of local resources and attracting the number of visitors that balances the economic efficiency of provided services with social benefits generation for the local population. Also, preliminary evaluation of the permissible recreational load must be a necessary condition for ecological tourism development.
