Content №2 от 2019
Economic Dynamics of Russian Regions: Crises and Ways of Restoring Growth
The article considers the main features of the economic crises of1998, 2009, and 2015, and analyzes the dynamics of the main indicators of the socio-economic development of the regions in and out of the crisis. It is shown that the foundation of all crises is structural factors: imbalances in the sectoral structure, a weak financial sector of the economy, and weak institutions.
The resource-oriented economy model proved unsustainable to external shocks. In all the cases, the crisis drop began in regions most dependent on external economic conditions: metropolitan agglomerations and oil-and-gas producing regions. However, a deeper decline in production and slow economic recovery were observed in regions focused on domestic demand. After the 2009 crisis, the magnitude off luctuations in growth rates decreases in all federal districts. Production does not drop as far during the crisis, but its subsequent rise is also low. We evaluate the impact of national trends and features of production structure in regions on the regional economic dynamics. The article shows an increased interregional differentiation of growth rates under crisis and an increased value of regional factors proper. The resilience of regional economies to crisis shocks is determined by regional factors contribution. We consider the proportions of income distribution between households and businesses, as their changes determine the dynamics of consumer and investment demand. It is shown that transferring income towards businesses is not a factor for investment growth. The regional structure of investment demand has no direct correlation with the structure of business income. The peculiarity of the 2015 economic crisis is that final demand adapted to external shocks and the reduced post-devaluation ruble exchange rate by compressing both investment and consumer demand. The real sector of the economy shows the greatest resistance to the crisis; pre-crisis industrial indicators in 2018 are exceeded in all federal districts.
