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Energy Consumption under Uncertainty: Methodical Approach

The paper offers an approach to assessing a demand for fuel to make a long-term forecast of the opportunities of regional energy markets under uncertainty. A peculiarity of the approach is application of the optimization model and Monte-Carlo method. To show what would bring this approach, we present our results obtained by the application of the technique proposed to assessing the price elasticity of demand for gas observed at the new and large heating plants of several Russian regions.

Galperova Ie. V. galper@isem.sei.irk.ru

Keywords: socio-economic development energy consumption long-term forecast banks regional energy markets demand