Content №2 от 2002
Consequences of Russian economy fragmentation
The paper considers a hypothetical paradigm of Russia's disintegration into independent regional republics and appraises the results of this disintegration on the basis of inter-industry inter-regional optimisation model. Rise of transport tariffs and ensuing reduction of the resource complex of Siberia may lead the European manufacturing complex of the country to reorientation to import markets resources. This would mean a real jeopardy for Russia of losing its resource security, of rise in prices of imported resources and drop of efficiency of the whole national economy. For a short time, some of the resource regions of Siberia may sustain the competition in the APN market of resources, but, being despoiled of the home consumer in the European part of the country, will gradually curtail their final consumption. Therefore, the hypothetical strategy of the country's fragmentation is doomed to higher dependence on external markets and to choke of the national production even in earlier successful regions.
