Content №3 от 2007
Assessing regional large-scale transportation projects: a factor of indeterminacy
The paper analyzes the modern theoretical and applied problems concerning the assessment of the large-scale investment projects under conditions of indeterminacy. The authors consider the domestic and foreign assessment techniques and conclude that their deterministic character is a key shortcoming. Having analyzed the large-scale regional transportation projects such as the Baikal-Amur Railroad, the Euro Tunnel and the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Pipeline, the authors show what happens if the inadequate approaches to assessing the strategic and tactic risks are applied to evaluating the input-output costs. In authors’ opinion, the reasons of the failures observed in above mentioned projects are as follows - the basic money flow models and the financial assessment criteria applied to validate the projects proved to be primitive; or the calculations - too mathematized in prejudice of a content-rich multi criteria analysis; or there was no a comprehensive public expertise. The paper presents a “neosystem” approach based on the institutional analysis and the contemporary computer and expert technologies.
