Content №4 от 2004
The theory of diffuse sets in the evaluation of large investment regional-transport projects
The project to bind the island of Sakhalin with the inland is here a case on which to use the theory of diffuse sets in the evaluation of the significance of large regional transport projects for steady development of the neighbouring areas. This approach is found relevant under uncertainty of the implementation, at the stage of investment intentions. It does not replace the development of conventional technical justifications but precedes it. In contrast to rigid delimitation into methods based on objective or subjective probabilities to allow for the factor of uncertainty, this approach demonstrates a possibility of compromise. These methods are meant to use expert opinions about consequences (outcomes) from different project alternatives, which makes it possible to avoid extremely wrong decisions at very early stages.
