Content №3 от 2021
A Set of Methods and Procedures for Analyzing and Forecasting the Development of the Russian East
This article offers an approach to forecasting long-term options for the social and economic development of Russia’s eastern regions that covers goal setting, mobilizing resources, and selecting mechanisms to achieve the set goals, on a systematic basis. We develop a methodology to coordinate the conditions for regional development at different hierarchical levels, in particular, to ensure that the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in the Russian Federation are correctly translated to the regions. We also suggest an evaluation plan to assess the impact of investment on increasing gross regional product (GRP) for the region, the country, and its eastern part. The plan is based on analyzing the “investment - fixed assets - GRP - investment" cycle, changes in fixed asset age composition, and ROA ratios.
The article substantiates the maximin criterion of GRP resource distribution aimed at reducing the gap between the performance of regional economic sectors and the improvement of infrastructure, social services, and household incomes in the regions. Newly drafted algorithms describe sharing the proposed methods inside a set of simulation regional macro-models. Here we propose a three-stage systemic forecasting plan, where the stages of top-down and bottom-up calculations are complemented with their mutual convergence. We study the characteristics of the social and economic situation in the Russian East. Finally, we conduct experimental regional development calculations until 2035 under a moderately optimistic scenario in relation to the key economic factor levels (the population, household incomes, a growing share of investment in GRP, etc.) and analyze their results.
