Content №4 от 2020
Designing a set of econometric models to measure the impact of social infrastructure on demographic development indicators in Russian regions
This article deals with accounting for the impact that the level of social infrastructure development has when forecasting demographic processes in the regions of the Russian Federation. The study’s methodological base is comprised of works by contemporary Russian and international authors. To solve the problems, we have used methods of indicator standardization, data grouping, economic/mathematical modeling, and rating.
In the study, we have developed a set of econometric models to assess the impact of social infrastructure on specific demographic process indicators in Russian regions: they take into account both the level of social infrastructure development across various areas of demographic processes and the results of grouping regions by the level at which social infrastructure is delivered. The second component included made it possible to make the models more ade-quate, as they started to reflect the regional characteristics of reproductive behavior in different Russian regions. In particular, we have created equations that describe the influence of these factors on birth, death, and net migration rates. Having evaluated the quality of the equations obtained, we claim they may be applied to analyzing the situation and subsequent forecasting.
We have examined the established econometric model set and, using it as a basis, formed a forecast for changes in the Russian regions ’ demographic parameters according to three scenarios. An analysis of the results shows that a medium-term increase in the birth rate is unlikely; together with slowed down mortality and a difficult migration situation maintained in many regions, the threat of a national demographic crisis is intensifying. The findings can be used in drafting a state demographic policy.
