Content №4 от 2017

Medium-Term Forecasting of the Development of the Buryat Republic with a Dynamic Input-Output Model

The article forecasts the development of the economy in the Buryat Republic within 2017–2019, contingent on the aggregate macroeconomic forecast  of Russia’s economic development, by using a dynamic input-output model. For the economy of Buryatia, we calculate the forecast in two versions: baseline and optimistic. Following the forecast calculation results for the dynamic input-output model, we outline predictive estimates of the dynamics of regional and sectoral indicators of the Republic for 2017–2019 in comparable prices. According to the baseline forecast, the Buryat GRP will retain negative dynamics in 2017–2018. A moderate economic growth will only pick up in 2019 (GRP growth rate is 101%). Fixed investment will continue to fall in 2017 (95%) and resume growing only in 2019 (102%). It is shown that under a more active economic policy by the Government of the Republic of Buryatia and favorable macroeconomic conditions, the optimistic scenario demonstrates a slight economic growth as early as 2018: GRP will increase by 1%. In 2019, according to this version, GRP will rise by more than 3%. Considering the investment lag, in order to ensure economic growth in 2018–2019 under the optimistic scenario, a significant increase in investment should be resumed in 2017, which will continue in 2018–2019. The optimistic forecast is a numerical estimate   of those investment increment factors that are necessary to ensure the beginning of an economic recovery in the Republic of Buryatia.

Baranov А. О.

Dondokov Z. B.-D.

Dyrkheev К. P.

Pavlov V. N.

Suslov V. I.

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