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PECULIARITIES OF THE BIRTH RATE IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASED SUPPORT FOR FAMILES WITH CHILDREN

 The article assesses fertility trends in Russia’s northern regions in the con­text ofpro-family demographic policies in the first quarter of the 21st century. The official data of Rosstat and the legal documents in the field of the demo­graphic policy makes the information base. The trends of birth rates in the nor­thern federal constituent entities are generally similar to those in the Russian Federation, but the level is above the national average in most of them. The Republic of Tyva and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug are particularly marked, with the significant percentage in their population of the indige­nous ethnic groups with an incomplete transition to the reduced lifetime fertility. As in the whole country, in the north fertility is higher in the rural areas. Particularly significant differences were observed within the period of 2012-2017 due to the very high total rural birth rates resulting from the implementation of the regional maternal capital programs for the third child and the introduction of a monthly allowance for the third and subsequ­ent child in the families with the low income. The most significant differen­tiation between urban and rural areas is typicalfor the Republics of Tyva, Komi and Karelia, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Arkhangelsk Oblast.
Strengthening of the federal demographic policy by the regional measures has prolonged in the first half of the 2010s the trend of increase in the birth rate already in the context of deterioration of the age structure of the childbe­aring contingents and has contributed to the increase in the birth rate due to the change in the calendar of births, better fulfilment of the population’s reproductive expectations and improved fertility rates. However, the early exhaustion in the first years of the demographic policy of the final fertility of women, especially the rural ones, reinforced the structural factor of the birth rate decline within the period of 2016-2023, and it is likely to slow down the upcoming structural increase in the coming years. Under these conditions, the further activation of the state assistance to families with children is required.

Popova L. A. popova@iespn.komisc.ru

Keywords: межпоселенческая дифференциация рождаемост population fertility fertility factors Northern areas demographic policy in support of the family birth rate differentiation between urban and rural areas

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