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SCENARIO FORECASTING OF POVERTY LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE REGIONS OF THE VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT BASED ON AN AGENT-ORIENTED MODEL

 In modern conditions, the level ofpoverty has become one of the key factors in the social well-being of the population and determines the effectiveness of state social policy in general. Using the example of the Volga Federal District, the article examines the main problems and trends in the formation of poverty among the working population in the regions of the Russian Fede­ration and justifies the use of agent-based modeling tools for forecasting the dynamics of poverty levels. The article also discusses the structure of the data used and the logic of building a special agent-based model. As part of the testing of the developed model, the results of experiments on assessing the dynamics of poverty levels in the regions of the Volga Federal District for the period up to 2030 are presented, based on various scenario op­tions. Based on the conducted experimental studies, a general assessment of the dynamics of poverty levels in the regions of the Volga Federal District is provided, and the regions are grouped according to their poverty levels. The necessary management measures are justified to reduce poverty levels for each group, including for the regions at highest risk. 

Karimov A. G. karaigal@gmail.com

Nizamutdinov M. M. marsel_n@mail.ru

Davletova Z. A. davletova11@mail.ru

Keywords: management measures to overcome poverty poverty level Volga Federal District regions agent-based modeling scenario experiments poverty level dynamics forecast management measures to overcome poverty

The influence of typological characteristics and imitation of technologies on competitive intensity in a cluster

The article studies the dependence of competitive intensity in a horizontal economic system on the specifics of this system. The analysis was carried out using agent-based modeling in the case of a conventional cluster. It has been shown that systems with the maximal intensity of internal competition operate in highly profitable fields and are characterized by high market concentration. Two fundamental processes that are often opposed to each other in clusters, namely competition and cooperation between agents, are linked within one model. We have found out that cost-free imitation of technologies generally does not affect competitive intensity within the cluster while costly imitation decreases internal competition. In both cases, the profitability factor is more significant than the structure one (or market concentration). Competitive inten­sity within low-profitable clusters with the prevalence of small business dec­reases as imitation costs grow. The highest level of competition under the costly interaction of cluster's participants, characterized by a different ability to sustain contacts, could be achieved in companies systems with more con­nections. In the clusters of this type, competitive intensity increases with gro­wing imitation costs. We have demonstrated the possibility to achieve different combinations of competition and cooperation processes, which could be inde­pendent, contra- and co-directional under different conditions. These results confirm a necessity to consider the typological features of a managed object while developing regulatory mechanisms

Markov L. S. Lmarkov@ieie.nsc.ru

Kotelkin D. D. kdd92@mail.ru

Petukhova M. V. pm1986@mail.ru

Keywords: competition cluster agent-based modeling imitation of technologies evolutionary approach

Agent-Based Approach to Modeling Sectoral Evolution: Russian Coal Industry

The paper proves an urgency of applying an evolutionary approach to study how economic systems progress, and it presents the structure of the Russian steam coal facilities considered as a system of interacting agents and described by an agent-based model developed by the author. The model, in the authors’ opinion, could be regarded quite applicable to analyze the industry dynamics as well as an ‘alternative history’ of the industry in terms of competition between agents of the economic system

Markov L. S. Lmarkov@ieie.nsc.ru

Markova V. M. markova_vm@mail.ru

Kotelkin D. D. kdd92@mail.ru

Keywords: evolutionary economics agent-based modeling steam coal production

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